Peas Market Faces Innovation-Driven Shift Amid Global Supply Pressures

The global peas market stands at a pivotal moment, shaped by cutting-edge breeding innovations in major producing regions and shifting supply-demand fundamentals. India’s breakthrough in heat-tolerant, fast-growing pigeonpea varieties is poised to transform both national and international pulse supply chains, potentially alleviating long-standing deficits and reducing costly imports. Meanwhile, Europe and the Black Sea region exhibit fluctuating price trends as weather risks, logistics, and regional competitiveness sway market sentiment. Against the backdrop of ongoing trade flows, stock movements, and a changing regulatory climate, market participants are watching closely for signals of sustained bullishness or an incoming correction. The introduction of high-yield, drought-resistant varieties may reshape acreage allocation and trade flows in the coming seasons. In the short term, prices remain sensitive to immediate weather volatility and regional harvest prospects, particularly as buyers eye more affordable origins and eye new-crop supply developments. With these dynamics at play, strategic players must stay vigilant to capitalize on emerging opportunities and manage potential risks in a dynamic global peas market.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Purity	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Date	Change (Weekly)	Sentiment
Marrowfat Peas (Dried)	GB	–	London	FOB	1.28	1.28	2025-06-06	0.00%	Stable
Green Peas (Dried)	GB	–	London	FOB	0.96	0.96	2025-06-06	0.00%	Stable
Green Peas (Dried)	UA	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.48	0.50	2025-06-05	-4.0%	Weak
Yellow Peas (Dried)	UA	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.31	0.32	2025-06-05	-3.1%	Weak
Yellow Peas (Dried)	PL	98%	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.36	0.37	2025-05-28	-2.7%	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Innovating with a new heat-tolerant, short-duration pigeonpea variety (ICPV 25444). Potential to expand to 12 million ha fallows; could double yields to 2 t/ha, sharply closing the 1.5 mln t production gap. Short term, India remains a strong importer.
• Europe/UK: Stable domestic prices, reflecting limited near-term change in demand or supply; strong demand for high quality peas.
• Ukraine/Poland: Price declines in both green and yellow peas due to post-harvest supply and competition from other exporters.
• Trade: India imports $800 million worth of pigeonpea annually, mainly from Africa, Myanmar, and East Europe. The new variety may slowly reduce import reliance.
• Global Demand: High, particularly for protein extraction and plant-based foods. Africa and Asia remain fast-growing consumption areas.
• Stocks: Low global inventories in key importing nations support prices; local surpluses in Black Sea region put pressure on export values.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA/Agriculture reports: Worldwide acreage expansion is possible, especially if the Indian variety is adopted beyond South Asia. Watch for next USDA and ICRISAT updates on global area forecasts.
• Production:
  • India: ~3.5 mln t pigeonpea (needs ~5 mln t).
  • Ukraine: Increasing area/yield post-war recovery.
  • Canada (yellow peas): Largest exporter, facing dry weather risks in 2025.
  • EU: Stable, but acreage capped by policy.
• Speculative Positioning: Neutral to slightly bearish in Euronext/ICE contracts, reflecting recent post-harvest pressure and increased liquidity.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India: Pre-monsoon heat persists; new heat-resistant variety could limit yield loss if scaled up next season. Rabi sowings to expand on innovation success.
• Ukraine/Poland: Early summer mildness, but local dryness may stress late-planted fields. July rainfall crucial for final yields.
• Canada: Drought warnings in Western prairies; could impact 2025 new crop supplies.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Production Est. (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)	Status
India (pigeonpea)	3.5	<0.5	Deficit
Ukraine	0.5	0.1	Surplus
Canada (yellow peas)	4.0	0.3	Stable
EU	1.2	0.2	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Short-term: Weakness in Black Sea (UA, PL) origin prices; look for spot buying opportunities.
• 📌 India: Importers watch for gradual shift if new variety scales up – actual structural change occurs over 2-3 seasons.
• 📌 Europe: Prices stable, procurement mainly for quality-specific demand.
• 📌 Weather: Monitor Canadian and Eastern European weather – surprises here could reverse current bearish sentiment.
• 📌 Hedge: Consider locking in contracts for Q3/Q4 if Canadian drought intensifies.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• London (GB Green/Marrowfat): Sideways; price stability expected (Marrowfat: USD 1.28/kg, Green: USD 0.96/kg)
• Odesa (UA Green/Yellow): Soft to slightly lower; continued post-harvest selling (-2% to -4%)
• PL (Yellow): Minor downside risk; possible stabilisation near USD 0.36/kg