Peas Market in Flux: Indian Import Duties Loom, Global Trade Braces for Shifts

The global peas market is on the cusp of significant change as the Indian government signals a decisive policy turn. India, one of the world’s leading pulse importers, is poised to impose a 30–50% import duty on yellow peas from October onward, reversing its current zero-duty regime. This move aims to stabilize rapidly falling domestic prices, shield local chana (Bengal gram) markets from cheap imports, and bolster rural incomes as the Rabi sowing season nears. The anticipated duties have sent strong signals through the value chain—traders, farmers, and exporters alike are recalculating strategies in anticipation of higher costs and shifting trade flows.

India currently imports over 500,000 tons of yellow peas annually, mainly from Russia and Canada. With global prices anchored between USD 480–500/t, the recent influx has suppressed local market prices and raised serious concerns for farmer profitability. Should the new duties materialize, import costs will rise, giving Indian producers a much-needed competitive edge. Meanwhile, global suppliers face the prospect of reduced access to India’s vast market, with potential oversupply elsewhere and new pricing pressure. Weather conditions remain favorable in major sourcing countries, but the outcome of India’s policy, together with inventory trends and speculative flows, will set the tone for pea prices in the coming months.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Peas dried	Yellow (98%)	PL	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.35	-0.02	Bearish
Peas dried	Marrowfat	GB	London	FOB	1.34	+0.02	Bullish
Peas dried	Green	GB	London	FOB	1.02	+0.02	Bullish
Peas dried	Yellow (98%)	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.31	-0.01	Bearish
Peas dried	Green (98%)	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.43	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Indian Import Policy: Introduction of a 30–50% duty on yellow peas is set to restrict import flows, primarily affecting shipments from Russia and Canada.
• Global Trade Flows: India imports over 500,000 tons of yellow peas annually; any regulatory shift will spur rerouting or storage in exporter countries.
• Domestic Pressures: Low market prices for chana (Bengal gram) prompted calls from Indian farmer lobbies and industry bodies for protection from cheap imports.
• Price Competitiveness: Global prices at USD 480–500/t have increased competition; imposition of duties will likely reduce Indian demand for landed imports.
• Inventory Trends: High arrivals have kept domestic prices low; expected duties may slow future imports and support local values.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Inventories: Elevated inventory levels in exporters such as Russia and Canada after bumper harvests.
• Major Importers/Exporters:
  • Exporter: Russia, Canada, Ukraine.
  • Importer: India, China, EU.
• Speculative Positioning: Bearish in Europe for yellow peas as Indian demand uncertainty weighs; green and marrowfat peas see firmer sentiment.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Black Sea Region: Favorable late-summer weather has aided crop maturity and harvest in Ukraine and Russia, supporting quality and volume.
• Canada: Good soil moisture and mild temperatures have led to above-average yields for peas, further boosting availability.
• India: Monsoon rains near seasonal norms, supporting Rabi sowing prospects for pulses, including peas and chana.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2023/24 Production (kt)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (kt)	Notes
Russia	3,400	750	High export surplus for yellow peas
Canada	2,900	600	Solid yields; eyes on India policy
Ukraine	850	170	Crisis logistics improving
India	950	110	Rabi sowing outlook strong
China	950	220	Steady demand; local preference for green peas

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers:
  • Secure short-term supply before October to avoid the new Indian duty.
  • Monitor Indian government announcements and upcoming Rabi sowing trends for market signals.
• Exporters (Russia, Canada):
  • Prepare for potential stock build-up if Indian demand slows; seek alternative buyers in Asia and the EU.
  • Consider pricing incentives or flexible shipment terms to move inventory ahead of Indian tariffs.
• Producers:
  • Indian farmers should anticipate firmer local prices and plan Rabi sowing accordingly.
  • Overseas producers remain alert for demand shifts and sudden spot pricing opportunities.
• Traders:
  • Bearish outlook for yellow peas near term, particularly CIS/EU origins, as India waits for tariff implementation.
  • Bullish for marrowfat and green peas on tighter supply/demand elsewhere.

📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Location	Price Today (EUR)	Forecast (3 days)	Trend
Yellow Peas	Kiełczygłow, PL	0.35	0.34 – 0.35	Soft/Bearish
Marrowfat Peas	London, GB	1.34	1.34 – 1.36	Stable/Bullish
Green Peas	London, GB	1.02	1.02 – 1.04	Stable/Bullish
Yellow Peas	Odesa, UA	0.31	0.30 – 0.31	Soft/Bearish
Green Peas	Odesa, UA	0.43	0.43 – 0.44	Stable