The global peas market is at a crossroads, marked by policy uncertainty, significant price volatility, and ongoing tension between producer and consumer interests. The recent intervention by India’s Supreme Court, which issued a notice to the government on its policy of continued duty-free imports of yellow peas until March 2026, has shone a spotlight on the dilemma faced by both farmers and policymakers. India’s position as a critical buyer—and now a price influencer—has sent ripples through key exporting nations such as Ukraine, the UK, and Poland. Farmer groups in India claim domestic prices have slumped below government-set Minimum Support Price (MSP) levels, arguing that millions of pulse producers are struggling against a backdrop of weak pricing. On the other hand, the Indian government, conscious of consumer inflation and food security, has defended the move to keep imports duty-free as a response to global market volatility and to stabilize retail prices.
This environment has generated downward pressure on international pea prices, with traders wary of more volatility as the judicial review unfolds and the new harvest season approaches. Weather developments, particularly across Ukraine and the UK, are also influencing supply expectations as growers adapt to changing rainfall and temperature patterns. Meanwhile, price competition among originators (notably Ukraine, Poland, and the UK) has sharpened, as evidenced by flatter prices and occasional dips in the past weeks. The coming weeks will likely see heightened sensitivity to legal developments in India, weather shifts, and changing export orientations from major suppliers.
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Peas dried
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98%
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Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.34 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Purity | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA (Ukraine) | Green | 98% | Odesa | FCA | 0.43 | 0.00 | Stable |
| UA (Ukraine) | Yellow | 98% | Odesa | FCA | 0.30 | 0.00 | Weak |
| GB (UK) | Marrowfat | – | London | FOB | 1.34 | 0.00 | Stable |
| GB (UK) | Green | – | London | FOB | 1.02 | 0.00 | Stable |
| PL (Poland) | Yellow | 98% | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.35 | -0.02 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Remains the largest buyer, especially of yellow peas; ongoing legal action over import policy creates uncertainty for global exporters.
- Ukraine, Canada, Russia: Main global exporters; Ukraine’s logistics have improved despite the ongoing regional instability, but exporters remain price-takers in current conditions.
- Consumer Demand: Still robust in emerging markets (Southeast Asia, North Africa), but incremental growth is limited by weak pricing and currency pressure.
- Speculative Positioning: Limited activity on major exchanges, with physical trade driving forward.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory Levels: Global ending stocks are projected moderately higher YOY, particularly in major exporting countries.
- Acreage: No significant expansion noted this season; some reduction in Canada and the EU due to crop rotation incentives for oilseeds and cereals.
- Policy: India’s prolonged duty-free import regime is pivotal—any change could tighten world supply and firm up prices abruptly.
- Exports: Ukraine and Poland increasingly targeting non-Indian destinations, but trade flows bend to India’s legal and policy developments.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine: Recent rain showers have improved soil moisture but delayed some late harvesting; conditions now mostly favorable for quality.
- UK/Poland: Drier than average August/September, supporting timely harvest and good color, especially for Marrowfat and Green peas; temperature swings monitored for quality impact.
- India: Late monsoon exit may delay fieldwork and new sowings but overall does not threaten supply in the near term; ample stocks persist.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Production (mln t) | 2023/24 Ending Stocks (mln t) | 2022/23 Production (mln t) | 2022/23 Ending Stocks (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3.15 | 0.46 | 3.53 | 0.38 |
| Ukraine | 0.85 | 0.08 | 0.91 | 0.12 |
| Russia | 2.80 | 0.34 | 2.62 | 0.26 |
| EU | 2.13 | 0.25 | 2.05 | 0.21 |
| India | 0.86 | 0.15 | 0.81 | 0.18 |
📆 Outlook & Trade Recommendations
- Monitor India’s Supreme Court proceedings closely—adverse ruling for duty-free imports could swiftly tighten international market and lift prices.
- India-bound exporters: Manage hedge positions, avoid over-commitment ahead of judicial decision; diversify destination risk where possible.
- Buyers in other Asian/North African regions: Potential window to secure competitive prices before possible Indian market tightening.
- Producers: Focus on quality/yield optimization, as price competition remains intense and margins thin.
- Trade remains thin, with spot activity reflecting uncertainty and stocks weighing on bids.
📅 3-Day Price Forecast
| Origin/Exchange | Type | Forecast (EUR/t) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odesa (UA) | Yellow Peas | 0.29 – 0.31 | Sideways to slightly weaker |
| Odesa (UA) | Green Peas | 0.43 – 0.44 | Flat |
| London (GB) | Marrowfat Peas | 1.33 – 1.37 | Stable |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Yellow Peas | 0.34 – 0.36 | Firming after recent drop |
