The global peas market is navigating a dramatic price downturn in mid-2025, as both pigeon pea (tur dal) and dry pea prices tumble to multi-year lows. In India’s major producing regions, tur dal prices have fallen below $1.20 USD/kg, with average quality at $1.07–1.08 USD/kg and premiums only slightly higher. This downward spiral, a reversal from two years of supply-driven highs, is a consequence of surging imports—now duty-free through March 2026—and muted domestic demand. Imports have soared 59% year-on-year to over 1.22 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the influx of cheap imported yellow peas is reshaping consumption patterns and putting additional pressure on local prices.
Average retail prices fell 24% year-on-year by late June 2025, stirring concerns for growers despite an uptick in the official Minimum Support Price. With sowing for the 2025 kharif crop underway and government procurement support limited, farmers are offloading stocks. Weak market sentiment continues, yet festival-driven demand and a variable monsoon outlook could offer relief if supply or consumption shifts. European and Black Sea origins reflect similar price stagnation: green and marrowfat peas out of Great Britain are holding steady (EUR 0.98–1.3/kg FOB), while Ukrainian and Polish yellow peas hover around EUR 0.32–0.36/kg FCA. All eyes are now on weather patterns and government policy to determine the next move for the market.
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Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.30 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
green
FOB 0.98 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
yellow
98%
FCA 0.32 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Type | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried | GB | marrowfat | London | FOB | 1.30 | 0.00 | Stable | 2025-06-21 |
| Peas dried | GB | green | London | FOB | 0.98 | 0.00 | Stable | 2025-06-21 |
| Peas dried | UA | yellow (98%) | Odesa | FCA | 0.32 | 0.00 | Bearish | 2025-06-20 |
| Peas dried | UA | green (98%) | Odesa | FCA | 0.48 | 0.00 | Bearish | 2025-06-20 |
| Peas dried | PL | yellow (98%) | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.36 | -0.01 | Weak | 2025-05-28 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Tur dal prices at a three-year low; sowing for 2025 kharif season underway amid persistent oversupply.
- Imports: Indian duty-free import policy boosts overseas volumes by 59%, hitting 1.22 million tonnes in FY25.
- Substitutes: Entry of cheaper yellow peas undercuts domestic pulses, alters household and industrial demand patterns.
- Europe/Black Sea: Stable to soft prices; abundant supplies in UK, Ukraine, and Poland and flat demand signal continued surplus.
📊 Fundamentals
- Government policy: Duty-free pulse import extension (to March 2026) in India suppresses local price floor.
- Minimum Support Price: Raised to 96.04 USD/100kg for 2025 kharif but limited government procurement pressure undermines support.
- Retail drop: Indian retail prices fell to 1.47 USD/kg (Jun 2025), down from 1.93 USD/kg year-on-year.
- Speculation: Market seen as oversold; short-term caution prevails, but pre-festive demand could trigger a modest rebound.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India: Monsoon advance is crucial—any deficiency may impact current sowings and new season yields. Latest forecasts indicate patchy rainfall in key central and southern states, raising short-term supply risk.
- Ukraine/Poland/UK: Moderate temperatures, sufficient rainfall in Black Sea and NW Europe continue to support good vegetative growth and yield outlook for current season.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
- India: Largest global pea markets, but aggressively import-dependent in 2025. Stocks higher than average due to rapid imports and slow domestic off-take.
- Ukraine, Poland: Supplies ample and inexpensive, especially in yellow peas; likely to capture more Asian and Mediterranean demand amid Indian pulse import surge.
- United Kingdom: Stable marrowfat and green pea export position; UK prices unmoved as buyers hold off for market stabilisation.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term bearish bias—oversupply and sluggish end-user demand persist, especially for yellow peas.
- Monitor Indian monsoon progress; weather shortfalls could provide a catalyst for price rebound post-July.
- Pre-festival (Aug–Oct) pulse demand in South Asia could offer a temporary price lift; consider strategic inventory build at current lows.
- Importers should monitor freight and currency moves; Asian demand may shift to Black Sea/European origins if Indian prices strengthen.
- Farmers advised to pace sales, as policy change on procurement or weather-driven supply issues could quickly shift sentiment.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| London (GB) | Marrowfat | 1.30 | Stable |
| London (GB) | Green | 0.98 | Stable/Weak |
| Odesa (UA) | Yellow 98% | 0.32 | Stable |
| Kiełczygłow (PL) | Yellow 98% | 0.36 | Weak |
