Peas Market Outlook: Tariffs, Oversupply, and Shifting Demand Shape Subdued Prospects

The global peas market is entering a period of marked transition, defined by steep tariff barriers, sluggish export demand, and swelling carry-out stocks. Canada—the world’s largest exporter of dry peas—faces a sharp contraction in overseas sales for 2024–25 and 2025–26, largely driven by major buyers like China and India erecting formidable tariff walls. As a result, Canadian exports are set to fall to 2.1 million tonnes this crop year and could plummet to just 1.3 million tonnes thereafter. The consequences are evident, with recent monthly shipments running below five-year averages and inventories projected to balloon.

Elevated tariffs, particularly China’s 100% import duty and the looming expiration of India’s import exemption at the end of May 2025, compound the export challenge. Meanwhile, prices at farm gates and key European locations remain under pressure, despite green peas maintaining a significant premium over yellow varieties. Elsewhere, reduced North American sowings contrast with a modest increase in Canadian acreage, but the overriding narrative remains one of oversupply and weak trade. While this may benefit some importing regions, market participants face a tough landscape shaped by protectionism and market oversupply in the near term.

📈 Current Prices

Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/tonne)	Weekly Change	Date	Sentiment
United Kingdom	London	Marrowfat Dried	–	FOB	1.30	0.00	2025-06-21	Neutral
United Kingdom	London	Green Dried	–	FOB	0.98	0.00	2025-06-21	Bearish
Ukraine	Odesa	Yellow Dried	98%	FCA	0.32	0.00	2025-06-20	Bearish
Ukraine	Odesa	Green Dried	98%	FCA	0.48	0.00	2025-06-20	Bearish
Poland	Kiełczygłow	Yellow Dried	98%	FCA	0.36	-0.01	2025-05-28	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Canada: Exports forecast at 2.1 million tonnes for 2024–25, declining to 1.3 million tonnes in 2025–26 as a result of weaker international demand and steep tariffs from key partners. Sowing area expected to expand by 9% to 1.42 million hectares (2025–26), aided by relatively better returns compared to other crop choices, but only marginal production growth (+4%). Carry-out stocks set to rise sharply.
• United States: 2025–26 sowing to fall by 8% to 0.90 million acres, driven by reductions in North Dakota and Montana (USDA). Lower production will modestly relieve North American oversupply but won’t offset the decline in global demand.
• China: Formerly a major market for Canadian peas, now imposes 100% import duty, reducing import volumes considerably.
• India: Remains a critical market for Canadian peas, but exemption from import restrictions will expire May 31, 2025.
• Bangladesh & US: Both have seen export volumes from Canada fall below historic norms.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Stocks: Canadian end-of-year carry-out stocks expected to climb sharply, putting further pressure on prices into 2026.
• Prices: Saskatchewan farm-gate prices for yellow peas dropped by $15/tonne in March (USD), while green peas declined $65/tonne; yet green peas maintained a substantial premium (forecast +$200/tonne premium full-year).
• Returns: Pea acreage expansion in Canada is incentivized by relatively superior returns versus competing crops, even as export demand softens.
• Speculative positioning: Current market sentiment is bearish with little speculative interest amid ongoing trade hurdles.

🌦️ Weather & Production Outlook

• Canada: Recent cool, wet weather has aided soil moisture recharge in Saskatchewan and Alberta, supporting early stand establishment for peas. However, some regions are experiencing localized flooding, which could reduce plant stands and marginally trim 2025–26 yields if conditions persist into July. (Web & satellite data, June 2025)
• Ukraine & Poland: Mostly favorable spring conditions but intermittent rains may delay harvest in some areas by late July.
• US Northern Plains: Warm, dry pattern persists, potentially curbing yield potential, particularly in North Dakota and Montana.

🌏 Global Supply Comparison Table

Country	2024–25 Production (est. million tonnes)	2025–26 Forecast (million tonnes)	Imports	Exports	Ending Stocks
Canada	3.0	3.1	0.0	2.1 → 1.3	Rising sharply
United States	0.85	0.78	Small	Small	Stable
Ukraine	0.45	0.48	–	0.35 → 0.40	Stable
India	Varies*	Varies*	Potentially rising post-exemption	Negligible	Stable
China	Small	Small	Falling sharply	–	Increasing

*India has variable domestic output; recent years have seen moderate production but volatile policy-driven import needs.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish sentiment prevails: Low export prospects, high carry-out, and persistent tariffs continue to pressure prices.
• Incremental green pea premiums: While overall prices soften, green peas maintain a premium—watch for potential shifts as inventories rise.
• Weather watch: Favourable Canadian weather could improve yields, but localized flooding and US dryness could present supply-side volatility.
• Policy risks: Monitor for possible extension of India’s import exemption and any relaxation in Chinese duties—either could shift the export calculus rapidly.
• Procurement strategy: Buyers may benefit from patience, as high stock levels and limited export windows pose little risk of short-term supply tightness.
• Forward contracts: Sellers should consider locking in prices for green peas during temporary rallies, but remain cautious for yellow pea contracts given the greater downside risk.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Location	Product	Current Price (EUR/tonne)	Range Forecast (Next 3-Days)	Direction
London (GB)	Marrowfat Dried Peas	1.30	1.28 – 1.32	Stable
London (GB)	Green Dried Peas	0.98	0.97 – 0.99	Soft
Odesa (UA)	Yellow Dried Peas	0.32	0.31 – 0.33	Soft