The global peas market is experiencing a period of robust demand that outpaces most other pulses, with consumption levels reportedly threefold higher than alternatives. This surge is driven primarily by the flour milling and food processing sectors, which are increasingly turning to peas due to their favorable price positioning. Recent market activity reflects this dynamic, with prices moving from approximately $43.20 to $44.40 per quintal. Despite this upward movement, analysts maintain that any further gains will likely be subdued. Adequate supply and healthy stock levels are key factors curbing sharp price increases, keeping the market balanced and stable for the time being.
Medium-grade peas currently command firm prices between $35.40 and $37.20 per quintal in key markets. Steady demand and well-managed inventories underpin these price levels, and most industry observers expect current conditions to persist into the near term. Looking ahead, weather patterns across major producing regions remain broadly favorable, suggesting limited risk of supply disruption. For market participants, the environment presents opportunities on both the buying and selling sides, especially as the risk of significant volatility appears limited in the short run.
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Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.34 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
green
FOB 1.02 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
green
98%
FCA 0.40 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Pea Prices at Key Exchanges
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Previous Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marrowfat | GB | London | FOB | 1.34 | 1.34 | 0.0% | Stable |
| Green (dried) | GB | London | FOB | 1.02 | 1.02 | 0.0% | Stable |
| Green (98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.40 | 0.41 | -2.4% | Softening |
| Yellow (98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Pea consumption has surged to nearly three times that of other pulses, as economic and value-driven buyers favor peas for their cost effectiveness.
- Strong ongoing demand from flour mills and food processors is driving price support, especially in premium and medium grades.
- Supply conditions remain generally adequate, with no significant shortage or logistic disruptions reported in major producing/exporting countries.
- Global importers such as India and China maintain steady purchasing, though current stocks are viewed as balanced, diminishing concerns over tightness.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Price momentum is supported by surging milling and processing demand; forward contracts remain popular among processors to secure quality supplies.
- Inventory levels at exporting hubs remain sufficient; speculative positioning is not driving major volatility at present.
- Latest USDA and global trade reports confirm 2023/24 ending stocks above 5-year average, with healthy production in Canada, Russia, and the EU.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Recent weather reports from key regions (including the UK and Black Sea area) indicate mostly favorable growing conditions with timely rainfall and moderate temperatures, supporting yield potential.
- No signs of damaging drought or heat waves on the immediate forecast; sowing and pollination phases progressing normally.
- Short-term weather models suggest continued benign conditions, reducing the risk of significant production losses in the upcoming weeks.
🌐 Production & Global Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Output (mln t) | 2023/24 Ending Stocks (mln t) | Year-on-Year Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3.8 | 0.65 | +5% |
| Russia | 2.4 | 0.48 | -2% |
| EU (total) | 2.1 | 0.44 | +1% |
| Ukraine | 0.75 | 0.13 | +2% |
| India | 0.90 | 0.20 | +8% |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Hold current positions or lock in forward sales at current price levels to benefit from strong demand and steady prices.
- Traders: Monitor inventories closely. Given slim upside, react quickly to signs of supply disruptions or external shocks.
- Buyers (Mills/Food Processors): Secure coverage for the next quarter to hedge against any weather-related price volatility, though short-term stability is likely.
- Speculators: Limited volatility and balanced stocks reduce the case for aggressive speculative longs or shorts at present.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/t) | Forecast Range (EUR/t) | Forecast Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| London (FOB, GB) | 1.34-1.02 | 1.32 – 1.34 | Stable |
| Odesa (FCA, UA, Green) | 0.40 | 0.39 – 0.41 | Neutral to slightly soft |
| Odesa (FCA, UA, Yellow) | 0.30 | 0.30 – 0.31 | Stable |
