The global peas market is experiencing sustained downward momentum amid a confluence of bearish factors. A robust increase in pigeon pea production during the latest Rabi and Kharif seasons—estimated to be 32–33% higher than the previous year—has flooded the market, leading to abundant supply and intensifying competition among sellers across key regions in India and abroad. At the same time, demand from dal mills remains lackluster as buyers switch to cheaper alternatives, keeping imports and domestic consumption subdued.
Internationally, Myanmar, a major supplier to India, continues to report declining pigeon pea productivity per hectare, yet even these lower outputs are not enough to offset the oversupplied Asia-Pacific market. This seasonal oversupply has caused domestic and imported prices to slide further, exemplified by recent spot container quotes from Chennai warehouses and CNF offers from Myanmar. Meanwhile, forward prices from Myanmar are retreating, signaling heightened bearishness and pushing many market participants out of bullish positions. For context, premium quality pigeon peas have seen a staggered drop from seasonal highs above $145 per quintal down to current levels near $73–$74 per quintal for standard grades.
Substitution trends are also rapidly accelerating. The price advantage for pea dal—$0.07–$0.08/kg lower than pigeon pea dal—continues to erode pigeon pea demand in major consuming states, as does robust supply from competitive regions like Hathras and Katni. Consequently, the market expects pigeon pea prices could fall another $2.50–$3.60 per quintal in the near term, possibly dipping below $76.80 per quintal. With this macro outlook and softening prices for forward contracts, the message is clear: further short-term weakness is likely, and traders are advised to stay cautious.
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Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.30 €/kg
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Peas dried
green
FOB 0.98 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
green
98%
FCA 0.48 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices: Key Exchange & Spot Market Overview
| Pea Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peas dried (Marrowfat) | GB | London | FOB | 1.30 | 1.28 | 2025-06-13 | Stable/Soft |
| Peas dried (Green) | GB | London | FOB | 0.98 | 0.96 | 2025-06-13 | Stable/Soft |
| Peas dried (Green, 98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.48 | 0.48 | 2025-06-12 | Stable |
| Peas dried (Yellow, 98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.32 | 0.31 | 2025-06-12 | Weak |
| Peas dried (Yellow, 98%) | PL | Kiełczygłow | FCA | 0.36 | 0.37 | 2025-05-28 | Slightly Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- India’s 2023–24 pigeon pea output (Rabi + Kharif) is up by 32–33% YoY to approximately 5.2–5.3 million metric tons, from 3.6–3.7 MMT last season.
- Myanmar’s export volumes remain firm, but productivity per hectare is falling, suggesting possible future constraints but not enough to impact current oversupply.
- Local supply from eastern and northern Indian regions (e.g., Katni, Hathras) continues to saturate key destination markets such as Patna, Gaya, Bokaro, and Dhanbad.
- Substitution: Pea dal—$0.07–$0.08/kg cheaper than pigeon pea dal—has taken market share across eastern Indian states, reducing pigeon pea utilization.
- Premiums for top-quality pigeon pea have eroded sharply, down from $145.20 to $73–$74 per quintal.
📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences
- Amply supplied domestic and international markets are undermining any potential bullish momentum.
- Weak dal mill and retail demand continues, exacerbated by competitive pricing for alternative pulses.
- Chennai spot container prices have declined by $2.40 per quintal in three days; monthly price drop of about $8.40 per quintal for pigeon peas.
- Forward MYANMAR prices remain soft; weak import appetite from Chennai-based buyers.
- No significant bullish catalysts anticipated in the near term.
🌦 Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra): Weather has been seasonally stable, with average monsoonal precipitation levels supporting healthy vegetation indices. No major drought or flood warnings currently in force.
- Myanmar: Reports suggest less rainy weather in some pigeon pea areas, but this is offset by stagnant or weak demand and high Indian output.
- Ukraine/Poland (Green/Yellow Peas): Mildly wetter-than-average early summer supports crop filling, but logistical movement is smooth and not currently impacting prices.
🌐 Global Production & Inventories: Key Comparisons
- India: 5.2–5.3 MMT pigeon peas (2023–24); up from 3.6–3.7 MMT last season.
- Myanmar: Lower yields but ongoing export activity; prices under pressure.
- Ukraine, Poland: Stable crop outlooks for green/yellow peas amid relatively low international demand and stable stocks.
💡 Trading Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
- 📉 Do not initiate new bullish positions given the oversupplied market, persistent weak demand, and soft forward price curve.
- 📦 Monitor the pace of substitution towards cheaper pea dal, especially in eastern and northern India.
- 🔄 Producers should focus on managing inventories and seek opportunities for forward/counter-seasonal contracting.
- 📊 Watch for any unexpected weather events in India or Myanmar but note that even moderate declines in output are unlikely to offset current surplus.
- 📈 Keep an eye on international pea price movement (notably for green/yellow types from Ukraine/Poland), in case of any cross-market arbitrage openings if Asian demand recovers.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/quintal) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/quintal) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chennai Container (Pigeon Pea) | 73.80 | 72.00 – 73.00 | ⬇️ Weak |
| Myanmar CNF (Pigeon Pea) | 74.10 | 73.00 – 74.00 | ⬇️ Weak |
| London FOB (Marrowfat Peas) | 130.00 (per 100 kg) | 129.00 – 130.00 | ➡️ Stable/Soft |
| Odesa FCA (Green Peas 98%) | 48.00 (per 100 kg) | 48.00 | ➡️ Stable |
