Peas Market Update July 2025: Rising Export Demand and Ukraine’s China Breakthrough

The global peas market is experiencing significant structural change as new trade routes open, competition intensifies, and export demand surges. In March 2025, Ukraine secured official approval to export peas to China after five years of negotiations, marking a strategic shift that could reshape regional market dynamics by late 2025. The Chinese market, eager to diversify away from Canadian origins due to the recent 100% import tariff, has already ramped up Russian pea imports. For Ukraine, both China’s and India’s market access—boosted further by India’s recent removal of pea import tariffs—are fueling stronger export demand and escalating buying activity in Black Sea ports.

Early in the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukrainian purchase prices surged to $275–280/t, matching previous seasonal highs. Notably, export volumes for Ukraine are projected at 400,000 tons this season, competitive with 2024/25 levels, amid growing pressure from established exporters like Russia and Canada. Despite these export advances, a sharp and sustained price rally appears improbable in the short term, as global supplies remain ample and buyers in China and India have multiple sourcing options. The outlook remains favorable for Ukrainian growers, buoyed by stronger prices, yet competitive pressures and weather volatility present clear risks.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
GB	Marrowfat	London	FOB	1.32	0	Neutral/Stable
GB	Green	London	FOB	1.00	0	Neutral/Stable
UA	Yellow (98%)	Odesa	FCA	0.33	0	Supported
UA	Green (98%)	Odesa	FCA	0.43	-0.01	Mildly Weaker
PL	Yellow (98%)	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.36	0	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Early 2025/26 prices for yellow peas delivered Black Sea ports at $275–280/t (UAH 13,500–14,000/t) reflect robust export demand. Exports projected at 400,000 t, unchanged YoY.
• China: 2024/25 pea imports estimated at 1.5 mln t. First five months of 2025: 333,000 t from Russia, 319,000 t from Canada. Anticipated to diversify further with Ukrainian access.
• India: Removal of pea tariffs is stimulating new import demand, especially from Ukraine/Russia.
• Russia: 2024 output ~4 mln t, exports ~2 mln t, with China and India as top buyers.
• Canada: On track to export ~2 mln t in 2024/25, sent 1.76 mln t YTD; sees higher direct competition in Asia.

📊 Fundamentals

• Chinese Market Opening: Accelerated approval for Ukrainian exports (pending customs formalities by August 2025) will diversify China’s supply base, reducing reliance on Russia/Canada.
• Tariff Changes: China’s 100% tariff on Canadian peas has reoriented global flows; India’s lifted tariffs unlocks major fresh demand from South Asia.
• Speculation: Increased open interest in Black Sea FOB peas, but managed money expects only moderate price increases due to wider market surplus.
• Inventories/Stocks: Canadian and Russian stocks remain comfortable. Ukrainian stocks tight, with strong forward sales to new markets.

🌤️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, supporting pea yield potential in major production zones (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk). Mild temperatures and timely rains expected into July support pod-filling, though isolated dryness in the east could pressure yields locally.
• Russia: Favourable harvest weather after wet spring. Bumper crop still expected in Volga and South Federal Districts.
• Canada: Some heat stress in Saskatchewan and Alberta, but generally crop conditions remain fair to good, barring further drought.

🌍 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Output (mln t)	Expected Exports (mln t)	Main Destinations
Russia	4.0	2.0	China, India
Canada	2.2	2.0	China, EU, India
Ukraine	0.45	0.40	China, India, EU

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider forward sales for Ukrainian yellow peas to capitalize on current highs, but monitor tender outcomes and final Chinese approval (expected August 2025).
• Exporters: Prioritize diversification to both China and India; build presence in the EU on competitive pricing vs Canadian rivals.
• Buyers: Watch for further softness in prices if Russian shipments to China accelerate or Canadian supplies rebound post-tariff alternatives.
• Speculators: Short-term upside capped by ample global inventories and competitive trade flows.
• Risk (Weather): Maintain vigilance for hot/dry spells in Ukraine and Canada; supply will hinge on July/August yield realization.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Bias
UA – Odesa	Yellow 98%	0.33	0.33–0.34	Stable/Slightly Firm
UA – Odesa	Green 98%	0.43	0.42–0.43	Soft/Stable
GB – London	Marrowfat	1.32	1.32	Stable
PL – Kiełczygłow	Yellow 98%	0.36	0.36	Stable