The global pepper market is navigating a phase marked by active harvesting, ample supply, and muted demand. In major producing regions like Kerala, India, favorable weather conditions have provided farmers with an excellent window for timely and uninterrupted black pepper harvesting. This has resulted in consistent arrivals at mandis, underpinning stable yet uninspiring market sentiment. At the same time, key consuming centers such as Delhi and Mumbai are witnessing subdued demand, largely confined to immediate procurement needs. Export activity is also limited due to increased competition from Vietnam and Indonesia, whose pepper is available at competitive rates in the international market.
On the supply side, experts estimate that around 20–25% of the anticipated crop has already reached the market—an early influx that, combined with robust carryover stocks, is exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite the boost in expected production for the 2025–26 crop season, local farmers remain wary of low price realizations. Buyers are proceeding cautiously, and speculative action is scarce, with any immediate price rebound heavily reliant on a revival in export or bulk domestic demand. This overall environment is maintaining pepper prices within a tight range and damping any prospects of sharp gains in the near term.
📈 Price Overview
| Location/Exchange | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 600 g/l, clean (FOB) | 6.42 | 6.38 | +0.04 | Steady/firm |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 550 g/l, faq (FOB) | 6.05 | 6.00 | +0.05 | Mild upward bias |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 550 g/l, clean (FOB) | 6.12 | 6.08 | +0.04 | Steady |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 500 g/l, faq (FOB) | 5.85 | 5.80 | +0.05 | Flat |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 500 g/l, clean (FOB) | 6.15 | 6.10 | +0.05 | Steady |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black, 5 mm, extra bold (FOB) | 6.55 | 6.50 | +0.05 | Steady |
| New Delhi (IN) | Black 500 g/l, clean (FOB) | 5.65 | 5.71 | -0.06 | Soft/Weak |
In the Indian domestic market, black pepper is currently quoted at about $8.51/kg in Kochi, and $8.05–$8.43/kg in Delhi and Mumbai, showing a softening by $0.12/kg over previous weeks. Sentiment remains muted amid steady arrivals and light trade.
🌍 Supply & Demand Trends
- Kerala and Karnataka are reporting increased pepper arrivals due to favorable weather, with 20–25% of the new crop already in the market.
- Carryover stocks continue to add to domestic supplies, keeping the market well-balanced or oversupplied.
- Vietnam and Indonesia are aggressively pricing pepper for export, placing downward pressure on Indian prices and limiting export activity from India.
- Major buyers remain absent, with domestic traders buying only for near-term needs.
Global Comparison Table
| Country | Estimated Production 2025/26 (tonnes) | Export Share | Key Market Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 21,500 | Limited/export margins squeezed | Ample supply, subdued prices |
| Vietnam | ~290,000 | Largest exporter | Competitive pricing |
| Indonesia | ~80,000 | Export-oriented | Competitive pricing |
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Production Outlook: Larger crop expected in India; Vietnam’s harvest at normal levels; Indonesia’s production steady.
- Inventory: High carryover stocks in India and Southeast Asia.
- Exports: Indian exports sluggish due to uncompetitive prices vs. Vietnam/Indonesia.
- Demand: Consumption centers still largely filled, demand subdued both domestically and internationally.
- Speculative activity: Minimal, cautious approach amid weak fundamentals.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Kerala, India: Favorable dry spells in the past week have accelerated harvest operations and minimized weather-related losses.
- Karnataka, India: Similar supportive weather conditions for harvesting; good crop quality reported.
- Vietnam & Indonesia: Typical monsoon pattern, with no adverse anomalies forecast—supportive for continued harvesting and post-harvest drying.
Impact: No immediate weather threats; ample supply anticipated in the short term may prolong weak price trends.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect prices to remain largely range-bound and soft in the near term.
- Monitor for any export demand revival from Middle East or US buyers; it could spur a marginal price bounce.
- Bulk buyers may find favorable procurement opportunities at current soft price levels.
- Farmers are advised to stagger selling if they can hold stocks, as a quick rebound is only likely if supply tightens unexpectedly or if export deals emerge.
- Speculators should remain cautious; only limited upside foreseen without a dramatic demand surge.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Expected Price Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| Kochi | 8.45 – 8.55 | Soft/Flat |
| Delhi | 8.00 – 8.45 | Weak |
| Hanoi (VN-FOB) | 6.00 – 6.50 | Stable to Mildly Firm |
Conclusion: The pepper market remains stuck in a range, guided by ample supply and lackluster demand. Watch export flows and weather patterns for any early signs of change.
