The global pepper market is currently navigating a phase of cautious stability, with recent weeks witnessing mild price fluctuations rather than outright volatility. After brief upward momentum, black pepper prices reversed course—indicating a waning rally and a disengaged demand side. The price for black pepper fell from $8.55 to $8.49 per kg, triggered by light profit booking by stockists wishing to capitalize on earlier gains.
This easing of prices highlights a pronounced supply response to price signals, with stockists preferring to release inventory rather than wait for higher prices, given the uncertain demand outlook. Despite a balance between supply and demand, the undertone remains bearish as purchasing activity lags, and buyers remain on the sidelines unless presented with a notable change in market fundamentals such as a severe supply squeeze or new export inquiries. Market sentiment thus tilts towards consolidation rather than any sharp directional move in the immediate term.
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Pepper
black 600 g/l, clean
FOB 6.38 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, faq
FOB 6.00 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, clean
FOB 6.08 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices: Latest Pepper Market Prices
| Product | Origin | Type | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper | VN | black 600 g/l, clean | Hanoi | 6.38 | 6.38 | 0% | Neutral |
| Pepper | VN | black 550 g/l, faq | Hanoi | 6.00 | 6.00 | 0% | Neutral |
| Pepper | VN | black 550 g/l, clean | Hanoi | 6.08 | 6.08 | 0% | Neutral |
| Pepper | VN | black 500 g/l, faq | Hanoi | 5.80 | 5.80 | 0% | Neutral |
| Pepper | VN | black 500 g/l, clean | Hanoi | 6.10 | 6.10 | 0% | Neutral |
| Pepper | VN | black, 5 mm, extra bold | Hanoi | 6.50 | 6.50 | 0% | Neutral |
| Pepper powder (Organic) | IN | black | New Delhi | 8.86 | 8.82 | +0.5% | Stable |
| Pepper (Organic) | IN | white whole | New Delhi | 7.13 | 7.10 | +0.4% | Stable |
| Pepper (Organic) | LK | green dehydrated | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.57 | 8.53 | +0.5% | Stable |
| Pepper (Organic) | IN | black whole 500 g/l | New Delhi | 8.17 | 8.13 | +0.5% | Stable |
| Pepper | IN | black 500 g/l, clean | New Delhi | 5.71 | 5.69 | +0.4% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Stockist-led profit booking has contributed to price softness after previous gains.
- Supply pressure evident as higher prices trigger release of inventory, balancing out possible shortfalls in arrivals.
- Demand remains tepid, with no indications of a near-term rally unless major export deals materialize or supplies sharply decrease.
- Market participants expect stability or gentle declines, with a lack of fresh upward catalysts.
📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Analysis
- Asian exporters—primarily Vietnam, India, and Sri Lanka—show stable FOB export prices, underscoring global steadiness in fundamentals.
- Inventory levels are adequate; speculative positioning remains subdued as per the latest trade comments.
- Compared to the last report, current prices are virtually unchanged, reinforcing market calmness and balance.
- Global consumption growth is modest, and stock levels in major consuming regions like the US/EU are sufficient for spot requirements.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Vietnam (Central Highlands): Periodic showers are beneficial for late berry development. No significant weather threats in the next 7 days.
- India (Kerala, Karnataka): Southwest monsoon activity is normal, with moderate rainfall maintaining soil moisture. Crop is progressing as expected; minor flooding risks are localized and not widespread.
- Sri Lanka: Seasonal rains favor healthy development in Western and Central provinces. No major weather disruptions projected for the coming week.
Favorable growing conditions in all main origins point towards stable supply, supporting the current market balance.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (kt) | 2023 Stocks (kt) | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 210 | 70 | Largest exporter, stable outlook |
| India | 65 | 25 | Stable, monsoon-driven |
| Indonesia | 45 | 20 | No major change |
| Sri Lanka | 17 | 5 | Higher organic share |
| Brazil | 23 | 8 | Steady, modest export hub |
| EU (Stocks, Importer) | – | 35 | Comfortable inventories |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term sentiment remains neutral to mildly bearish; avoid aggressive buying at current levels.
- Stockists may continue light profit booking if prices inch higher.
- Importers should not rush purchases—plenty of inventory and no supply disruptions foreseen in key origins.
- Monitor weather extremes and any development of fresh export inquiries, which could sharply shift prices.
- Consider staggered buying to minimize exposure to minor downside corrections.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.38 | 6.35 – 6.40 | Stable to Mildly Lower |
| New Delhi (IN) | Black 500 g/l, clean | 5.71 | 5.70 – 5.74 | Stable |
| Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte (LK) | Green dehydrated (Org.) | 8.57 | 8.55 – 8.60 | Stable |
