The global pepper market is experiencing a dynamic shift as Vietnam, the world’s leading pepper producer and exporter, continues to import significant volumes despite its dominant position. April 2025 saw Vietnam importing 5,688 tons of pepper—just shy of its all-time high—with a 27.2% increase in import value compared to the previous month. This surge, led by imports from Brazil and Cambodia, is not a sign of domestic shortage but rather a strategic move by Vietnamese enterprises to process and re-export, reinforcing the country’s leadership in the global pepper trade. Notably, these imports come amid a steady domestic price environment, with farmers reluctant to sell and prices hovering around 150,000 VND/kg since the year’s start. While the US’s imposition of countervailing duties briefly pressured prices, the market quickly rebounded, underlining strong underlying demand. With the harvest season concluding and weather conditions remaining favorable, all eyes are on global stock levels, speculative positioning, and shifting trade flows. This report breaks down the latest prices, supply-demand drivers, and offers a short-term forecast to help market participants navigate the evolving landscape.
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Pepper
black 600 g/l, clean
FOB 6.57 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, faq
FOB 6.20 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, clean
FOB 6.25 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.57 | 6.52 | +0.05 | Bullish |
| Black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.20 | 6.15 | +0.05 | Firm |
| Black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.25 | 6.20 | +0.05 | Firm |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.93 | 5.93 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.00 | 5.95 | +0.05 | Firm |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.30 | 6.25 | +0.05 | Bullish |
| Black, 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.70 | 6.65 | +0.05 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam: Continued as the top global producer and exporter, accounting for 50% of world supply. Imports surged 25.3% YTD (Jan–Apr 2025) to 15,374 tons, mainly from Brazil, Indonesia, and Cambodia.
- Brazil: Main supplier to Vietnam, providing 66.7% of April imports (3,792 tons), up 23.9% MoM.
- Indonesia: Notable increase in exports to Vietnam (+207.8% YTD).
- Domestic Vietnam: Farmers reluctant to sell, keeping local prices steady despite the end of harvest. Exports remain robust, supported by processing and re-export strategies.
- Global Demand: Strong, with US and EU buyers active, though US countervailing duties briefly pressured prices in April.
📊 Fundamentals
- Harvest: Vietnam’s harvest ended in April; no significant price drop, indicating tight farmer selling and healthy demand.
- Inventories: Global stocks remain moderate; Vietnam’s imports supplement domestic processing needs and help maintain export flows.
- Speculative Activity: Price recovery after US duty news suggests speculative support and market confidence.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Vietnam (Central Highlands): Recent weather has been favorable for pepper crops; no major disruptions reported. Rainfall and temperatures are within seasonal norms, supporting healthy crop development and post-harvest drying.
- Brazil (Espírito Santo, Pará): Dry weather persists, but irrigation and recent showers have supported stable yields. No significant threats to upcoming harvests.
- Indonesia: Mixed rainfall patterns, but no major adverse events reported.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (est. 000 tons) | 2025 YTD Exports (000 tons) | 2025 YTD Imports (000 tons) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 220 | ~60 | 15.4 | Stable/Moderate |
| Brazil | 95 | ~30 | Minor | Stable |
| Indonesia | 60 | ~18 | Minor | Stable |
| Cambodia | 20 | ~8 | 1.9 | Declining |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Prices are expected to remain firm in the short term due to tight farmer selling and robust export demand.
- Monitor developments in US/EU trade policies, as further duties or restrictions could trigger price volatility.
- Watch for any weather disruptions in Vietnam and Brazil, which could affect late-season supply.
- Importers: Secure forward contracts to hedge against further price increases, especially for higher-grade pepper.
- Exporters: Take advantage of favorable prices, but remain flexible in case of sudden regulatory or logistical changes.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Type | Origin | Location | Current (USD/kg) | Forecast (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.57 | 6.60–6.65 | Up |
| Black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | 6.20 | 6.23–6.27 | Up |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.30 | 6.32–6.36 | Up |