The global pepper market is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, marked by notable supply constraints, shifting trade patterns, and strengthening prices. Vietnam, the world’s most influential pepper exporter, has seen its export earnings surpass USD 1.06 billion this year, even as shipment volumes declined. Robust prices—driven by tight supply and changing demand—have offset lower output and the waning appetite of key buyers such as the US. Export volumes dipped, yet the average export value rose, reflecting tighter exportable surpluses and robust international demand.
The latest harvest in Vietnam concluded with output at 180,000 tons, which is 10,000 tons lower than last season, as new plantings stalled. Meanwhile, US importers are diversifying sourcing, turning towards Indonesia and India, although Vietnam retains its lead export position. Elevated countervailing duties in the US market may further pressure near-term exports, but an anticipated inventory rebuild by American buyers heading into 2026 is expected to underpin export activity and support firmer prices in the months ahead.
Despite these challenges, the Vietnamese pepper sector remains resilient. With global demand expected to remain solid and price levels well supported, industry forecasts point to a slight drop in export volume in 2025 but near record-high export values, thanks to robust price momentum. Competitive tax rates and stable supply give Vietnam an edge, even as other origins such as Brazil and India seek to gain market share. The outlook for late 2025 is optimistic, with a recovery in US imports and global prices underpinned by steady consumption growth in key markets.
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Pepper powder
black
FOB 8.80 €/kg
(from IN)
Pepper
white whole
FOB 7.07 €/kg
(from IN)
Pepper
green dehydrated
FOB 8.50 €/kg
(from LK)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder | Black | India | New Delhi | 8.80 | 8.75 | 2025-08-23 | +0.57% | Firm/Bullish |
| Pepper | White whole | India | New Delhi | 7.07 | 7.02 | 2025-08-23 | +0.71% | Stable |
| Pepper | Green dehydrated | Sri Lanka | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.50 | 8.45 | 2025-08-23 | +0.59% | Firm |
| Pepper | Black whole, 500g/l | India | New Delhi | 8.10 | 8.05 | 2025-08-23 | +0.62% | Firm |
| Pepper | Black, 600g/l, clean | Vietnam | Hanoi | 6.43 | 6.38 | 2025-08-23 | +0.78% | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam’s 2025 harvest: 180,000 tons (10,000 tons lower YoY)
- Vietnam pepper exports forecast (2025): 220,000 tons (vs. 250,000 tons in 2024)
- Export value projected near last year’s level (USD 1.3 billion), reflecting higher average prices
- US imports (Jan-May 2025): 36,000 tons, worth USD 273 million (18% drop in imports from Vietnam)
- Vietnam retained 64.4% share of total US imports
- Shift in US buying to Indonesia and India due to duties and supply tightness
- Outlook: Rebound in US import demand expected in Q4 2025–Q1 2026
📊 Fundamentals
- Tightening exportable surplus in Vietnam due to reduced output and limited new plantings
- Strong price support as buyers replenish inventories and supply remains constrained
- Competitive advantages: Lower export tax rates from Vietnam compared to Brazil and India
- Higher value realization despite lower volume, thanks to firm prices
- Forecast: Export prices are expected to remain stable or strengthen further towards year-end
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Recent weather in Vietnam: Relatively stable, with normal to slightly below-average rainfall in key pepper-growing regions; little crop damage reported for late 2025
- India and Indonesia: No major adverse weather events reported; crop conditions are favorable for both black and white pepper
- Impact: Current weather supports stable yields; moderate risk of isolated weather impacts as dry season advances
🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (000 tons) | 2025 Projection (000 tons) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 190 | 180 | Down |
| India | 68 | 70 | Steady/Up |
| Indonesia | 60 | 62 | Up |
| Brazil | 95 | 98 | Up |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers should consider securing forward contracts amid further upside risk in prices through Q4 2025–Q1 2026
- Monitor US import policy shifts; countervailing duties could temporarily slow trade
- Vietnam-origin pepper maintains price competitiveness; market remains well-supported by global demand
- Stock replenishment in major consumer markets likely to boost spot and forward prices
- Producers and exporters advised to plan strategic shipments ahead of anticipated demand recovery
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product/Type | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Expected Price Range in 3 Days (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder (black, organic) | New Delhi | 8.80 | 8.75 – 8.90 |
| Pepper (white whole, organic) | New Delhi | 7.07 | 7.00 – 7.10 |
| Pepper (green dehydrated, organic) | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.50 | 8.45 – 8.55 |
| Pepper (black 600g/l, clean) | Hanoi | 6.43 | 6.40 – 6.50 |
