The global pepper market has encountered a turbulent phase, shaped by drastic weather events across key producing regions and shifting demand dynamics. In northern India, relentless rainfall has impaired harvesting and supply chains, echoing similar disruptions in Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Indonesia. These weather anomalies have prompted a significant drop in black pepper prices both at origin and in international trade. Notably, Vietnamese black pepper—often seen as a market bellwether—has experienced price declines due to reduced output forecasts and tepid export demand, pressuring prices down to $7.30–7.60/kg (and in some cases, as low as $7.50/kg). Meanwhile, Indian growers, particularly in Kerala, report steady local consumption but slackening export momentum. Sri Lanka and Indonesia also face output and quality headwinds, intensifying concerns about supply reliability. While immediate market sentiment remains bearish due to logistical bottlenecks, high moisture in new arrivals, and fragile demand, some analysts anticipate a stabilization or recovery in the coming weeks—especially if weather improves and festive demand returns.
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Pepper
black 600 g/l, clean
FOB 6.48 €/kg
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Pepper
black 550 g/l, faq
FOB 6.10 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, clean
FOB 6.18 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Pepper Price Overview
| Origin | Type | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VN (Hanoi) | Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.48 | 6.42 | +0.06 | 2025-08-02 | Soft/Bearish |
| VN (Hanoi) | Black 550 g/l, faq | 6.10 | 6.05 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Soft/Bearish |
| VN (Hanoi) | Black 550 g/l, clean | 6.18 | 6.12 | +0.06 | 2025-08-02 | Weak |
| VN (Hanoi) | Black 500 g/l, faq | 5.90 | 5.85 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Soft/Bearish |
| VN (Hanoi) | Black 500 g/l, clean | 6.20 | 6.15 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Soft |
| VN (Hanoi) | Black, 5mm, extra bold | 6.60 | 6.55 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Stable/Weak |
| IN (New Delhi) | Black whole 500g/l | 8.15 | 8.10 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Stable |
| IN (New Delhi) | Black 500g/l, clean | 5.71 | 5.65 | +0.06 | 2025-08-02 | Stable/Soft |
| IN (New Delhi) | Pepper powder black (Organic) | 8.85 | 8.80 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Firm for organic |
| IN (New Delhi) | White whole (Organic) | 7.12 | 7.08 | +0.04 | 2025-08-02 | Stable |
| LK (Sri Jayawardenepura) | Green dehydrated (Organic) | 8.55 | 8.50 | +0.05 | 2025-08-02 | Stable/Quality risk |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Indian Market: Heavy rains in Kerala reduce availability and create logistical delays. Exports weakened, with steady, but insufficient, domestic demand.
- Vietnam: Output lowered due to erratic weather; price weakness persists on low export demand and liquidity crunch in global trade circuits.
- Sri Lanka: Prolonged rains degrade crop quality and delay arrivals.
- Indonesia: Output risks remain due to anticipated weather disruptions; potential for further short-term volatility.
- Global Context: Buyers adopt wait-and-see approach, expecting possible supply relief if weather normalizes.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- World production for 2024/25 is projected lower by about 5% compared to last year, mainly on sharp declines in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka.
- Inventories: Global stocks tighter than previous years; new arrivals have higher moisture levels, limiting immediate trade utility.
- Speculative Positioning: Short-term selling increases as traders respond to weak export sales and logistics problems.
- Previous Report vs. Current: Last report indicated firmer prices, but since then output and quality issues, demand disappointments, and weather shocks have pushed prices lower across all major origins.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Northern India: Persistent heavy rainfall, hindering harvesting and logistics (expected to ease slightly in the next week).
- Kerala: Waterlogging affects pepper vines; increased fungal disease risk for remaining crop.
- Vietnam: Intermittent rain with short spells of drier weather forecast, potentially aiding late-season harvest stabilization.
- Sri Lanka: Continued rainfall forecast to persist throughout the week; crop quality issues likely to worsen before improvement.
- Indonesia: Isolated storms may disrupt harvest logistics during the week, maintaining volatility risk for output volume.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Prod. (‘000 MT) | 2023 Prod. (‘000 MT) | Est. Ending Stocks (‘000 MT) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 180 | 195 | 35 | Down due to severe weather, low exports |
| India | 55 | 58 | 7 | Kerala hit hardest; stable local use, lower exports |
| Sri Lanka | 22 | 28 | 4 | Quality issues, delayed arrivals |
| Indonesia | 26 | 30 | 6 | Output reduced by rain |
| Brazil | 72 | 68 | 10 | Production up: remains price-competitive |
🔍 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Bearish bias—buyers may delay further purchases, focusing on quality and moisture concerns from new arrivals.
- Medium-term (next 1-2 months): Watch for potential price support from festive season demand and possible stabilization should weather improve.
- Producers: Consider holding back stocks if possible to wait for firmer prices or demand recovery spells.
- Importers: Diversify sourcing to mitigate weather-related upsets; secure forward contracts at current levels to hedge against potential recovery.
- Speculators: Monitor regional crop reports and weather disruptions for short-lived trading opportunities.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB, Major Origins)
| Origin | Type | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (Low-High, EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.48 | 6.40 – 6.55 |
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Black 550 g/l, faq | 6.10 | 6.05 – 6.18 |
| India (New Delhi) | Black whole 500 g/l | 8.15 | 8.10 – 8.25 |
| Sri Lanka | Green dehydrated (Organic) | 8.55 | 8.50 – 8.62 |
Market direction in the coming days will remain highly weather-dependent, with volatility likely to persist. Buyers should monitor regional weather updates and trade flows for timely entry or exit.
