The global pepper market is showing robust momentum entering Q4 2025, as sharply higher export values offset a contraction in shipment volumes. Vietnam, the world’s top supplier, illustrates this dynamic with export revenues surging 27.6% to USD 1.26 billion in the first nine months of 2025, even as tonnage slipped nearly 7%. A combination of tightening supply chains, resurgent post-pandemic demand in major consumption regions, and Vietnam’s increasing role as both a processor and re-exporter have driven pepper prices to multi-year highs. Black and white pepper prices in Vietnam hit fresh records in September, with continued gains forecast through year-end.
Major consumer markets are recalibrating with the United States remaining a dominant, though declining, importer, while China and the Middle East rapidly increase purchases. Meanwhile, Brazil’s doubling of exports to Vietnam highlights the latter’s pivotal role in global value-adding and re-export flows. All of these trends—set against a backdrop of reduced supplies and changing weather patterns—suggest pepper markets will remain firm with potential for further price appreciation.
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Pepper powder
black
FOB 8.92 €/kg
(from IN)
Pepper
white whole
FOB 7.17 €/kg
(from IN)
Pepper
green dehydrated
FOB 8.62 €/kg
(from LK)
📈 Current Market Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery (FOB) | Price (€/kg) | Prev. Price (€/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder | Black | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.92 | 8.90 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | White whole | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 7.17 | 7.15 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Green dehydrated | LK | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | FOB | 8.62 | 8.60 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black whole 500 g/l | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.22 | 8.20 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.52 | 6.50 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black, 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.65 | 6.63 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.14 | 6.12 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.22 | 6.20 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.77 | 5.75 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 5.95 | 5.93 | 2025-10-03 |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.25 | 6.23 | 2025-10-03 |
- Vietnamese black pepper (average): USD 6,490/ton (+2.4% m/m)
- Lampung black pepper (Indonesia): USD 7,225/ton (+3% m/m)
- Vietnam white pepper: USD 8,679/ton (+1.4% m/m)
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Vietnam Exports: 186,997 tons (Jan–Sep 2025), -6.9% y/y. Revenue surge of +27.6%.
- Major Buyers: USA (21.4% share, 39,979 tons; -30.4% y/y), China (+73.3% to 15,353 tons), UAE (+12.8% to 14,848 tons), India & Europe steady.
- Imports for Re-Export: Vietnam imported 36,112 tons (+51.9% y/y), with Brazil supplying nearly half.
- Market Trend: Rising prices despite falling volumes signals robust underlying demand and constrained supply.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Tight Global Supply: Lower output and reduced carryover stocks post-pandemic underpin price resilience.
- Strengthening Export Prices: Black pepper export price averages at USD 6,647/ton, up USD 1,795 y/y.
- Processing Hub: Vietnam gains importance in processing/re-export due to attractive import pricing from Brazil and Cambodia.
- Demand Recovery: Asia and the Middle East emerge as consumption growth engines as Western demand stabilizes.
🌦 Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Vietnam: The Central Highlands and southern provinces are forecast to receive below-average rainfall in October, raising concerns for the 2025/26 crop flowering and berry setting. Drier than usual conditions may hamper yield recovery.
- Indonesia: Lampung region sees moderate rain, supporting stable output but no significant expansion from prior years.
- India & Sri Lanka: Timely monsoon tail, supporting late-season pepper flowering and fruit set; outlook mostly steady for upcoming harvests.
Weather patterns suggest continued supply tightness into 2026 unless rainfall improves in Vietnamese main belts. Monitor for potential La Niña impacts later in the year.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 Output (est., tons) | 2025 Exports (tons) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 190,000 | 187,000 | Slightly lower supply, higher value |
| Brazil | 95,000 | 35,000 | Exports rising |
| Indonesia | 70,000 | 50,000 | Steady |
| India | 60,000 | 15,000 | Stable |
| Sri Lanka | 22,000 | 7,000 | Stable |
Stocks are at multiyear lows, particularly in Vietnam, contributing to ongoing market tightness.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Hold inventory if possible; upside price risk remains for balance 2025.
- Exporters: Leverage strong white pepper premium and focus on China/Middle East for sales.
- Importers: Lock in contracts promptly; expected tightness could persist through Q1 2026.
- Speculators: Market sentiment buoyant—watch for weather-induced supply shocks and respond proactively.
- Processers: Optimize raw material mix (local and imports) to ride out volatility.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast Range (€/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 550 g/l, clean | 6.22 | 6.18 – 6.28 | Bullish |
| New Delhi (IN) | Pepper powder | 8.92 | 8.85 – 8.98 | Stable/Bullish |
| Sri Jayawardenepura (LK) | Green dehydrated | 8.62 | 8.55 – 8.70 | Stable |
| Hanoi (VN) | Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.52 | 6.48 – 6.56 | Bullish |
Monitor for daily adjustments in FOB quotes and local market announcements.
