The global pepper market is experiencing a dynamic shift in 2025, led by Vietnam’s impressive export performance to the United Kingdom. In the first four months of 2025, Vietnamese pepper shipments to the UK not only grew robustly in volume but saw an even more dramatic surge in value. Despite a slight year-over-year dip in April export volumes, the skyrocketing value reflects one of the most striking price booms in recent history. The UK, now the fastest-growing market among Vietnam’s top ten destinations, is driving this momentum as it amplifies its import volume and willingness to pay premium prices.
Key data reveal that April’s average export price to the UK soared to over $8,000 per ton—up more than 65% year-over-year. This price rally is fueled by tight global supplies, rising demand from developed markets, strategic product diversification (from ground black pepper and whole black to premium white varieties), and speculative interest. Market sentiment is bullish, with most categories experiencing double- or even triple-digit growth rates. Amid this rally, Indian and Sri Lankan exporters are also seeing steady pricing on FOB terms, while weather risks and stock dynamics in major producing regions could provide further upside—or prompt volatility.
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Pepper powder
black
FOB 8.90 €/kg
(from IN)
Pepper
white whole
FOB 7.18 €/kg
(from IN)
Pepper
green dehydrated
FOB 8.60 €/kg
(from LK)
📈 Latest Prices & Market Table
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder (organic) | Black | IN | New Delhi | 8.96 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper (organic) | White whole | IN | New Delhi | 7.27 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper (organic) | Green dehydrated | LK | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.69 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper | Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.52 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.25 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper | Black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | 6.22 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper | Black, 5mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | 6.65 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
| Pepper | Black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | 5.9 | 0% | 2025-05-30 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam-UK Corridor: From Jan-Apr 2025, Vietnam shipped 2,330 tons of pepper to the UK, up 22.7% y/y in volume and nearly doubling in value (+97.9%).
- Product Diversification: Ground black pepper led exports (51.58% of volume; 50.55% of value), followed by whole black pepper, which saw a 206% growth surge. Whole white pepper, while small in absolute terms, increased by 3,033% in volume.
- UK Imports: The UK imported 2,700 tons of pepper in Q1 2025 (+12.2% y/y in volume; +48.9% value). March imports were strong, with 1,084 tons (+24.7%) valued at $8.6 million (+74.4%).
- Global Market: Tight global supplies, strong UK/EU demand, and weather-related impacts in major origins continue to underpin the rally.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Drivers
- Prices: April saw export prices to the UK average USD 8,012/ton (up 65.01% y/y), with YTD average at USD 7,308/ton (+61.23% y/y).
- Value Growth: Surging values reflect both higher FOB prices and a preference for value-added products.
- Speculative Positioning: Market expectation of further upside risk due to weather and stock uncertainty; speculative positions reported at multi-year highs.
- Latest ITC Data: UK, as a mature but price-sensitive market, shows both rising import volumes and stronger value recognition for high-quality and certified pepper.
⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Vietnam: Recent weather reports indicate sporadic rainfall, which may temper late harvest production but is not yet critical. Persistent dryness earlier this year has trimmed yields in some districts, especially Dak Nong and Gia Lai, though overall export capacity remains robust for Q2.
- India/Sri Lanka: Normal monsoon expected for southern India, with moderate crop prospects; however, early-year heat waves could impact harvest tonnage.
- Potential Effect: Adverse conditions lingering into early summer could introduce volatility and provide further bullish drivers if harvest shortfalls expand.
🌏 Global Production & Inventory Snapshot
| Country | 2025F Production (tons) | Main Export Markets | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 210,000 | UK, EU, US, Middle East | -3% |
| India | 65,000 | Middle East, EU, US | nc |
| Indonesia | 38,000 | China, US, EU | -2% |
| Sri Lanka | 26,000 | India, EU | +1% |
| Brazil | 44,000 | US, EU | +0.5% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟢 Bullish short- to medium-term outlook on back of robust UK/EU demand and ongoing global supply tightness.
- ⚠️ Monitor weather developments in Vietnam and southern India, as additional stress could sustain or extend price rallies.
- 💸 Producers and exporters: Lock in contracts while prices remain attractive; consider advancing shipments for price advantages.
- 📈 Buyers: Secure supply through forward contracts, especially for premium/fine grades where offers are limited.
- 🔎 Speculative traders: Maintain long positions or trailing stop strategies; fundamentals support further upside risk.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Exchange/Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepper powder (organic, black) | IN/New Delhi | 8.96 | 9.00 – 9.10 | Bullish |
| Pepper (white whole, organic) | IN/New Delhi | 7.27 | 7.30 – 7.35 | Bullish |
| Pepper (green dehydrated, organic) | LK/Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.69 | 8.70 – 8.75 | Stable |
| Pepper (black 600 g/l, clean) | VN/Hanoi | 6.52 | 6.55 – 6.65 | Bullish |
*Forecasts reflect prevailing market conditions, expected weather impacts, and continuing strong import demand in the UK/EU through the next week.