The global pepper market is experiencing a firm undertone, with black pepper prices in key Indian regions like Kerala and Karnataka holding steady, underpinned by sustained domestic and export demand. Improved weather in Kerala’s Idukki and Wayanad zones supports stable arrivals, easing some supply-side concerns, while robust buying interest from the Gulf, Europe, and North America—particularly ahead of the festive season—continues to absorb available stocks. Despite volatility in agricultural commodities, price levels for both garbled and ungarbled pepper in Kochi have remained resilient, signifying underlying market strength.
Karnataka’s market, while trading at a small discount, is equally buoyant. On the international front, Vietnam, which leads global supply, reports similarly firm prices, reinforcing the overall bullish sentiment. Industry sources expect these trends to persist at least until mid-September, given low carry-forward stocks and healthy export book positions. The International Pepper Community further projects a potential upward trajectory into late 2025, should the demand pace outstrip limited production growth. With India’s output for 2025-26 projected modestly higher, but with domestic consumption climbing, the firm pricing landscape is likely to persist as both internal and external demand remain robust.
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Pepper powder
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FOB 8.90 €/kg
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FOB 7.15 €/kg
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Pepper
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FOB 8.60 €/kg
(from LK)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | FOB Price (EUR/t) | Previous (EUR/t) | Change | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Black powder (organic) | New Delhi | 8.83 | 8.80 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Firm |
| IN | White whole (organic) | New Delhi | 7.10 | 7.07 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Firm |
| LK | Green dehydrated (organic) | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | 8.53 | 8.50 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| IN | Black whole 500 g/l, organic | New Delhi | 8.13 | 8.10 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Firm |
| VN | Black 600 g/l, clean | Hanoi | 6.46 | 6.43 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| VN | Black 550 g/l, faq | Hanoi | 6.08 | 6.05 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| VN | Black 550 g/l, clean | Hanoi | 6.15 | 6.12 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| VN | Black 500 g/l, clean | Hanoi | 6.18 | 6.15 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| IN | Black 500 g/l, clean | New Delhi | 5.68 | 5.65 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| VN | Black 500 g/l, faq | Hanoi | 5.88 | 5.85 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
| VN | Black, 5 mm, extra bold | Hanoi | 6.58 | 6.55 | +0.03 | 2025-08-30 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Indian market: Black pepper arrivals in Kerala, Karnataka expected to remain steady on improved weather and robust domestic/offtake.
- Export demand: Gulf, Europe, and North America are showing strong buying interest, especially with festival-led stockpiling.
- Stock levels: Lower carry-forward stocks compared to prior years continue to support prices.
- Vietnam: World’s top exporter, also reporting firm to rising prices (USD 7,400–7,500/t), which underpins Indian values.
📊 Fundamentals
- Indian output (2025-26): Estimated at 53,888 tons (slightly higher YOY).
- Domestic consumption: Continues to rise, tightening available surpluses for export.
- Global perspective: International Pepper Community forecasts tightening global supply into late 2025; production is constrained while demand remains robust.
- Speculation: Limited; physical demand is the primary market driver at present.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Kerala (Idukki, Wayanad): Weather conditions have improved with adequate rainfall, supporting healthy crop growth and arrivals for the coming weeks.
- Karnataka: Favourable weather is likely to sustain the harvest pace; no major disruptions reported.
- Vietnam main pepper regions: Stable weather, with no significant stress events reported, indicating steady international supply.
- Impact: Current weather in all major origins is supportive of both current and near-term yields, limiting price spikes but maintaining firm undertone due to strong demand.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | Est. Production 2025-26 (tons) | Stock Trend | Export Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 53,888 | Declining | Strong |
| Vietnam | ~220,000* | Stable | Bullish |
| Brazil | ~65,000* | Flat | Stable |
| Indonesia | ~40,000* | Stable | Stable |
*Estimated figures, subject to revision based on actual harvest data.
📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Short-term (1–3 weeks): Expect prices to remain firm, especially for Indian grades, bolstered by festive and export demand.
- Physical market participants advised to lock in requirements—risk of upward price movement if global demand surges.
- Exporters: Favourable global sentiment; consider forward contracting to capitalize on current demand trends.
- Speculators: Limited volatility expected short-term, but continued low stocks may create spikes if weather issues return.
- Monitor global currency trends and macro events that may impact international freight or financing costs.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/t) | 3-Day Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kochi (IN, Garbled) | 9,225* | 9,200–9,300 | Firm/Stable |
| Karnataka (IN) | 8,425–8,500* | 8,400–8,550 | Stable |
| Hanoi (VN) | 6,58 (5 mm bold) | 6,55–6,65 | Stable |
| New Delhi (Organic Black Powder) | 8,83 | 8,80–8,85 | Stable |
*USD/t; other prices in EUR/t, converted for comparative purposes.
The outlook for black pepper remains bullish in the near-to-medium term as both domestic and international market fundamentals provide solid support.