Pepper Markets Stay Firm Amid Strong Demand and Steady Supply: Price Outlook and Fundamental Drivers

The global pepper market is experiencing a firm undertone, with black pepper prices in key Indian regions like Kerala and Karnataka holding steady, underpinned by sustained domestic and export demand. Improved weather in Kerala’s Idukki and Wayanad zones supports stable arrivals, easing some supply-side concerns, while robust buying interest from the Gulf, Europe, and North America—particularly ahead of the festive season—continues to absorb available stocks. Despite volatility in agricultural commodities, price levels for both garbled and ungarbled pepper in Kochi have remained resilient, signifying underlying market strength.

Karnataka’s market, while trading at a small discount, is equally buoyant. On the international front, Vietnam, which leads global supply, reports similarly firm prices, reinforcing the overall bullish sentiment. Industry sources expect these trends to persist at least until mid-September, given low carry-forward stocks and healthy export book positions. The International Pepper Community further projects a potential upward trajectory into late 2025, should the demand pace outstrip limited production growth. With India’s output for 2025-26 projected modestly higher, but with domestic consumption climbing, the firm pricing landscape is likely to persist as both internal and external demand remain robust.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	FOB Price (EUR/t)	Previous (EUR/t)	Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
IN	Black powder (organic)	New Delhi	8.83	8.80	+0.03	2025-08-30	Firm
IN	White whole (organic)	New Delhi	7.10	7.07	+0.03	2025-08-30	Firm
LK	Green dehydrated (organic)	Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte	8.53	8.50	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
IN	Black whole 500 g/l, organic	New Delhi	8.13	8.10	+0.03	2025-08-30	Firm
VN	Black 600 g/l, clean	Hanoi	6.46	6.43	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
VN	Black 550 g/l, faq	Hanoi	6.08	6.05	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
VN	Black 550 g/l, clean	Hanoi	6.15	6.12	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
VN	Black 500 g/l, clean	Hanoi	6.18	6.15	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
IN	Black 500 g/l, clean	New Delhi	5.68	5.65	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
VN	Black 500 g/l, faq	Hanoi	5.88	5.85	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable
VN	Black, 5 mm, extra bold	Hanoi	6.58	6.55	+0.03	2025-08-30	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Indian market: Black pepper arrivals in Kerala, Karnataka expected to remain steady on improved weather and robust domestic/offtake.
• Export demand: Gulf, Europe, and North America are showing strong buying interest, especially with festival-led stockpiling.
• Stock levels: Lower carry-forward stocks compared to prior years continue to support prices.
• Vietnam: World’s top exporter, also reporting firm to rising prices (USD 7,400–7,500/t), which underpins Indian values.

📊 Fundamentals

• Indian output (2025-26): Estimated at 53,888 tons (slightly higher YOY).
• Domestic consumption: Continues to rise, tightening available surpluses for export.
• Global perspective: International Pepper Community forecasts tightening global supply into late 2025; production is constrained while demand remains robust.
• Speculation: Limited; physical demand is the primary market driver at present.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Kerala (Idukki, Wayanad): Weather conditions have improved with adequate rainfall, supporting healthy crop growth and arrivals for the coming weeks.
• Karnataka: Favourable weather is likely to sustain the harvest pace; no major disruptions reported.
• Vietnam main pepper regions: Stable weather, with no significant stress events reported, indicating steady international supply.
• Impact: Current weather in all major origins is supportive of both current and near-term yields, limiting price spikes but maintaining firm undertone due to strong demand.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Est. Production 2025-26 (tons)	Stock Trend	Export Trend
India	53,888	Declining	Strong
Vietnam	~220,000*	Stable	Bullish
Brazil	~65,000*	Flat	Stable
Indonesia	~40,000*	Stable	Stable

*Estimated figures, subject to revision based on actual harvest data.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short-term (1–3 weeks): Expect prices to remain firm, especially for Indian grades, bolstered by festive and export demand.
• Physical market participants advised to lock in requirements—risk of upward price movement if global demand surges.
• Exporters: Favourable global sentiment; consider forward contracting to capitalize on current demand trends.
• Speculators: Limited volatility expected short-term, but continued low stocks may create spikes if weather issues return.
• Monitor global currency trends and macro events that may impact international freight or financing costs.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/t)	3-Day Forecast	Direction
Kochi (IN, Garbled)	9,225*	9,200–9,300	Firm/Stable
Karnataka (IN)	8,425–8,500*	8,400–8,550	Stable
Hanoi (VN)	6,58 (5 mm bold)	6,55–6,65	Stable
New Delhi (Organic Black Powder)	8,83	8,80–8,85	Stable

*USD/t; other prices in EUR/t, converted for comparative purposes.

The outlook for black pepper remains bullish in the near-to-medium term as both domestic and international market fundamentals provide solid support.