Poland Cherry Market Outlook – 2025/26
Severe Spring Frosts Cause 30% Production Decline
🧾 Summary
For Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26, Poland’s total cherry production is forecast to fall to 115,000 metric tons (MT), a 30% drop from 2024 and over 50% below the six-year average. The decline is primarily due to repeated frosts in April and May 2025, which severely damaged early-fruiting varieties.
📉 Production Trends
| Year | Sour Cherries (MT) | Sweet Cherries (MT) | Total (MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 168,700 | 68,800 | 237,500 |
| 2024 | 110,200 | 51,000 | 161,200 |
| 2025 (f) | 80,000 | 35,000 | 115,000 |
- Sour cherries dominate production (~70% of total).
- MY 2024/25 production was already 32% below the previous year due to poor weather.
- New orchards (esp. sour cherries) are replacing apples and currants.
🌦️ Weather Impact
- Late frosts (mid-March to May) caused widespread flower and bud damage.
- Local losses reached up to 90% in some orchards.
- Cold May weather and low rainfall further reduced fruit set and pollinator activity.
📈 Area Under Cultivation
| Year | Total Cherry Area (HA) | Sour | Sweet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34,900 | 25,300 | 9,600 |
| 2024 | 34,400 | 24,900 | 9,500 |
| 2025 (f) | 34,500 | 25,000 | 9,500 |
- Despite weather issues, the orchard area is stable due to new investments.
- Large discrepancies exist between government data and EU agency figures (e.g., 24,900 ha vs. 18,058 ha for 2024).
🧃 Consumption & Processing
- 75% of cherries go into juice and NFC concentrate.
- 20% are frozen, mostly for export.
- Domestic cherry processors report no frozen inventory left as of May 2025.
- Sweet cherry consumption is expected to fall due to limited supply and high prices.
- Labour shortages and energy prices are driving mechanisation, though this reduces yields and tree lifespan.
🌍 Trade Snapshot (Fresh Fruit Only)
❗ 2024/25 vs 2023/24 Export Volumes:
- Sour cherries: ↓21% (2,693 MT)
- Top destination: Germany (74%)
- Sweet cherries: ↓25% (599 MT)
- Main markets: Lithuania, Germany, UK
⬆️ Imports Rise Sharply:
- Sour cherries: ↑1,389% (to 3,253 MT)
- Sourced from Hungary, Moldova, Serbia
- Sweet cherries: ↑31% (to 8,184 MT)
- Driven by demand during early-season shortages
- Key suppliers: Turkey, Germany, Greece, Bulgaria
🔭 Outlook
- Processors and exporters will compete for limited domestic cherries.
- Supply shortfalls in Hungary, Serbia, and Turkey further tighten the EU market.
- Strong export prices may tempt Polish growers to prioritise exports, but high logistics and prep costs are a barrier.
- Continued weather instability, high labour costs, and import competition threatenthe long-term viability of smaller cherry farms.
Source: USDA