This year’s potato market is entering a dynamic and potentially turbulent phase as France, Europe’s largest potato grower, braces for a record harvest. The National Union of French Potato Producers (UNPT) forecasts output exceeding 8.5 million tons for 2025—an impressive 900,000-ton jump compared to last year—largely driven by a 25% acreage expansion since 2023. However, this bumper crop brings mixed blessings. Yields are marginally down by 5% at 43 t/ha, suggesting challenging growing conditions even as overall volumes surge.
Rather than celebration, the dominant mood is caution: oversupply is already weighing on early prices, with reported trades at 0 €/t for some varieties. The UNPT urges strict contractual discipline, demanding producers and buyers hold firm to pre-agreed terms to avoid a devastating price collapse. For many, the challenge now is to navigate the flood of supply while safeguarding economic stability, suggesting sector-wide cooperation and exploring new markets for surplus production. Even with somewhat better prospects in the fresh market segment, the fundamental pressure from excess will define trading, storage, and processing strategies across Europe into 2026.
📈 Potato Price Overview
| Product | Origin | Location | Exchange | Last Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potato starch | PL | Lodz | FCA | 1.02 | 0% | Stable/Soft |
| Early potato (FR)* | FR | Main production regions | Spot | 0 | N/A | Weak/Pressure |
*fresh market prices based on latest trade reports
🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot
- Production: Record 2025 French harvest: >8.5 million tons (+900,000 y/y); acreage at 197,000 ha (+25% since 2023)
- Yield: Slightly lower at 43 t/ha (-5% vs. 2024) due to weather or input challenges
- Demand: Fresh potato market shows resilience; processing/post-harvest sectors face risk of saturation
- Exports: Likely to increase but must overcome strong domestic and EU-wide supply
- Inventories: Expected to swell through 2025–2026 without counterbalancing demand stimulation or new uses for surplus
📊 Key Market Fundamentals
- Main driver: Surging acreage and output in France – an outlier compared to stable or declining areas elsewhere in the EU
- USDA/UNPT: Call for strict adherence to contracts, warning of serious financial risk if prices spiral down
- Speculative positioning: Minimal at present; focus is on physical management, not futures trading
- Processing capacity: Under strain from excess raw material – incentives to expand value-added processing or export starch and derivatives
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- France: 2025 saw a hot, dry spring, followed by variable rains. While yields dipped, the vast expansion in area compensated for some losses.
- Key risk: If summer drought stress intensifies or autumn becomes excessively wet, quality and storability may face further threats.
- Europe: Most other major exporting countries (NL, DE, BE) report typical production cycles—no broad weather disasters but some harvest strain in low-lying, wet-prone areas.
- Short-term forecast (next 7 days): Seasonally mild, modest rainfall; no major adverse events expected, sustaining already-set production outlook.
🌐 Global Production & Inventories
| Country | 2025 (est) Production (million t) | Stocks vs. prior year |
|---|---|---|
| France | 8.5 | Significantly higher |
| Germany | 11.4 | Stable |
| Netherlands | 7.1 | Stable |
| Belgium | 4.3 | Slightly higher |
| China | 94.0 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ⚠️ Producers: Rigorously defend contract pricing. Avoid forced liquidation at spot; coordinate storage, if possible, to stagger market entry.
- 📉 Buyers/Processors: Leverage oversupply tactically but anticipate potential for supply discipline if producers hold firm.
- 🌱 Exporters: Seek new overseas markets or develop additional starch, flake, or added-value product lines to absorb surplus.
- 🔍 Market Watchers: Monitor for signals of price stabilisation—any sharp drop in planted area for 2026 or industry-wide storage constraints could slow downward pressure late in 2025.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/t)
| Region/Exchange | Current | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potato starch (Lodz, PL, FCA) | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | Stable |
| Early potato (FR, Spot) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Soft/Depressed |
