The global potato market, with a spotlight on Eastern Oregon, is entering a period of heightened volatility and uncertainty. The recent decision by the U.S. administration to increase tariffs—lifting the average effective rate to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest since the early 20th century—has set in motion a wave of cost pressures and strategic challenges for American potato producers and processors. While immediate sales, particularly to processors, have shown little impact, industry leaders and economists warn that the brunt of these policy moves will be felt during the 2025/26 crop cycle. Fertilizer and equipment costs are rising fast: Solution 32 fertilizer is trading at around USD 0.85 per pound—nearly four times the sustainable range—while parts and machinery costs have climbed 5–15% over the past year.
At the same time, global competition, notably from rapidly expanding Chinese potato producers, threatens to erode U.S. export share in critical markets. Large processors already anticipate significant cost increases, with Lamb Weston projecting USD 25 million in additional expenses for the next fiscal year. With tariffs likely to persist and input costs surging, the industry faces shrinking margins and heightened export risk just as international competitors ramp up their own production plans. The coming year will test the resilience and adaptability of the sector—and strategic decisions made now will echo well into 2026 and beyond.
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Exchange / Market | Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potato starch | Physical Market | Lodz, PL | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2025-09-15 | 0% | Stable/Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Tariff Surge: US effective average tariff at 18.6%—highest since 1933—clouds export outlook.
- Exports at Risk: Over 50% of Oregon’s potatoes are exported; potential for export market contraction as buyers consider alternative suppliers.
- Chinese Competition: Aggressive Chinese expansion increases rivalry in global markets, particularly in frozen potatoes and starch products.
📊 Fundamental Drivers
- Input Inflation: Solution 32 fertilizer at USD 0.85/lb (up from USD 0.20–0.30). Equipment up 5–15% YoY.
- Processor Margins: Tariffs could add USD 25 million in costs for Lamb Weston (FY 2025/26).
- Stock Levels: Global inventories remain adequate, but future drawdowns possible as growers consider scaling back due to cost pressures.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Northwest US: Eastern Oregon and Washington report near-average soil moisture, but below-normal precipitation is forecast for the coming two weeks. Drought risk rising should conditions persist, potentially lowering yields in upcoming plantings.
- Europe: Favourable growing conditions in Poland (major starch exporter); soil moisture levels support average to slightly better yield prospects.
- China: Major growing regions report stable weather, aiding continued expansion in planted acreage.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (mt) | 2024/25 Exports (mt) | Stock Change YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 19.0 million | 2.4 million | -3.5% |
| China | 94.0 million | 2.6 million | +5.2% |
| Poland | 8.5 million | 0.95 million | +1.1% |
| EU (total) | 53.0 million | 2.1 million | -0.8% |
⚡ Key Drivers & Trading Recommendations
- Monitor US Tariff Policy: Persistent high tariffs may trigger further cost inflation; watch for policy developments and possible relief measures.
- Input Strategies: Secure fertilizer and machinery contracts early where possible; anticipate further supply chain disruptions or price spikes if tariffs remain.
- Export Diversification: Explore new or non-traditional markets to offset potential losses from traditional export partners shifting to alternate suppliers.
- Speculative Positioning: Limited upward momentum in prices due to flat demand and stable stock levels; risk for downside should export flows drop sharply.
- Weather Vigilance: Track soil moisture and temperature trends in PACNW (Pacific Northwest) and Europe for potential risk to upcoming crop yields.
⏳ Three-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Market | Product | Forecast Price (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-16 | Lodz, PL | Potato starch | 1.01 | Stable |
| 2025-09-17 | Lodz, PL | Potato starch | 1.01 | Stable |
| 2025-09-18 | Lodz, PL | Potato starch | 1.01 | Stable |