This season has brought the potato market in West Bengal to a critical junction, marked by a historic oversupply and a sharp collapse in wholesale prices. The West Bengal Cold Storage Association (WBCSA) urgently warns that unless immediate policy intervention is enacted, the state’s $1.2 billion industry and rural livelihood are at severe risk. Despite record cold storage inventories—7.085 million metric tonnes, including a high share of early stock—farmers are now facing losses of $4.82 to $6.02 per quintal, with wholesale prices for the Jyoti variety dramatically undercutting the government-set minimum support price (MSP). Meanwhile, cold storages, packed to capacity and underutilized due to inter-state market restrictions and lagging state procurement promises, reflect a broken agricultural value chain.
The disparity between farm-gate and retail prices continues to widen, compounding rural distress and fueling calls for procurement reform, revived trade channels, and expanded demand through welfare programs. Weather conditions and national crop forecasts, coupled with market reluctance, create significant uncertainty heading into the coming months. Without intervention, the downstream effects could lead to reduced sowing, underused infrastructure, and lasting damage to West Bengal’s rural economy.
📈 Prices
| Exchange / Market | Product | Closing Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lodz (PL) | Potato starch | €1.02 | 0.00% | Stable — Low trade volume |
| West Bengal (Cold Storage Gate) | Jyoti (Fresh) | ~€0.10* | -39% (from MSP) | Bearish — Excess supply, weak demand |
*Calculated from $0.11/kg at current FX rate.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Record Stockpiles: West Bengal holds 7.1 million tonnes in storage following curtailed inter-state trade. Nearly 80% of this stock is owned by farmers.
- Market Access & Policy: State’s failure to purchase 1.1 million tonnes at MSP worsens the glut; inter-state and export flows remain sluggish.
- Diverging Prices: Farm-gate (cold storage gate) prices have plummeted nearly 40% below MSP, while retail has not adjusted at the same rate, squeezing margins.
- Inclusion in Welfare: Calls to channel surplus into mid-day meals/public distribution schemes to absorb excess.
- Potential Crop Abandonment: Persistent losses risk farmer exit from potato cultivation in 2026.
📊 Fundamentals
- Input Costs: Current prices below cost of production (average loss: $4.82–$6.02/quintal).
- Procurement Delay: State’s unkept promise to buy 1.1 million tonnes leaves 80% of cold storages filled with unsold farmer stocks.
- Trade Stagnation: Continued restrictions on inter-state movement, along with slow international exports.
- Speculator Activity: Low, given lack of futures market for potatoes in India.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- West Bengal: The past week saw above-average monsoon showers, improving soil moisture for upcoming Rabi sowing, but humidity risks for stored crops rise. Next 2–3 days forecast mostly stable temperatures (Max 32°C, Min 25–26°C) with isolated showers, unlikely to heavily impact harvest or storage.
- Northern Bharat (India): Similar monsoon pattern persists. No adverse weather expected imminently.
- Poland (EU Market – for comparison): Mild summer, regular rainfall — satisfactory for current potato starch production.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | 2024/25 Output (est., mn. t) | Stocks (mn. t) | Key Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (West Bengal) | ~14 | 7.1 | Record cold storage occupancy; large share unsold |
| EU (Poland) | 2.5 | 0.3 | Stable demand for starch; prices flat |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Farmers: Review storage capacity costs closely; lobby for MSP enforcement and urgent procurement orders; consider alternative channels (direct-to-retail, regional trade).
- Traders: Exercise caution; short-term prices expected to remain under pressure due to excess supplies and slow state procurement.
- Cold Storage Operators: Manage inventory turnover; negotiate for inclusion in welfare schemes or government sale programs to minimize carryover risk.
- Exporters: Explore nearby export markets in SE Asia and Middle East, where Indian potatoes maintain quality advantage late in season.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Day 1 (EUR/kg) | Day 2 (EUR/kg) | Day 3 (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Bengal (Cold Storage Gate) | Jyoti (Fresh) | €0.10 | €0.10 | €0.11 |
| Lodz (PL) | Potato starch | €1.02 | €1.02 | €1.02 |
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