The global raisins market continues to draw strong attention as both supply and demand fundamentals converge towards premiumization, sustainable practices, and expanding international influence. Recent high-profile exposure at events like Anuga 2025 in Cologne underscores Tajikistan’s emergence as a pivotal player in the dried fruit sector, with national producers focusing on organic cultivation, advanced traceability, and premium quality. While India, Turkey, China, and Chile remain the mainstays—delivering large volumes and diverse grades—new competition from Central Asian suppliers is reshaping export dynamics and intensifying quality standards.
Current trading levels for major grades remain largely stable, reflecting ample inventories and routine contract fulfillment. However, subtle price declines in select European hubs suggest that buyers are leveraging mild oversupplies and a recent uptick in Turkish offers. As global buyers increasingly seek organic and sustainably sourced raisins, price premiums for certified organic Turkish sultanas are holding steady at the upper end. Forward-looking producers are responding with innovative marketing and robust supply chain transparency, building differentiated brands for the global scene.
Persistent weather variability in key origins (Turkey, India, California, and Central Asia) continues to pose upside risk to future supply—but as of early October 2025, conditions in most regions remain conducive to steady output. In summary, the raisins market is at a strategic intersection of quality-driven expansion and price consolidation—presenting both opportunities and critical inflection points for market participants.
📈 Prices: Latest Raisins Market Quotes
| Type | Grade | Origin | Location (Exchange) | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden | AA | IN | New Delhi (FOB) | FOB | 1.97 | 1.97 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Brown | AA | IN | New Delhi (FOB) | FOB | 1.51 | 1.51 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Black | AA | IN | New Delhi (FOB) | FOB | 1.47 | 1.47 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
| Feed, Brown | – | AF | Dordrecht (FCA) | FCA | 1.80 | 1.83 | 2025-10-03 | Weakening |
| Flame Jumbo | – | CL | Dordrecht (FCA) | FCA | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2025-10-03 | Softening |
| Sultanas, Std, No: 9 AA | AA | CN | Dordrecht (FCA) | FCA | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2025-10-03 | Mildly Bearish |
| Nr. 9, RTU | – | TR | Dordrecht (FCA) | FCA | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2025-10-03 | Softening |
| Sultanas, Type 9 STD | STD | CN | Hamburg (FCA) | FCA | 2.10 | 2.09 | 2025-09-29 | Stable |
| Sultanas, Type 9 RTU | RTU | TR | MALATYA (CIF) | CIF | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2025-09-17 | Stable |
| Sultanas, Type 9 A | A | TR | MALATYA (FOB) | FOB | 3.70 | 3.70 | 2025-09-17 | Stable, Premium |
| Sultanas, Type 8 A | A | TR | MALATYA (FOB) | FOB | 3.65 | 3.65 | 2025-09-17 | Stable |
| Sultanas, Type 10 A | A | TR | MALATYA (FOB) | FOB | 3.75 | 3.75 | 2025-09-17 | Stable |
| Sultanas, Type 9 Organic | A | TR | MALATYA (FOB) | FOB | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2025-09-17 | Premium, Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Shifts
- Organic and Sustainable Practices: Tajikistan, Turkey, and leading players are pivoting towards certified organic and traceable production to capture premium segments and respond to global consumer trends.
- Export Expansion: Tajikistan’s presence at Anuga 2025 emphasizes new trade linkages and diversifies global sourcing beyond traditional exporters (Turkey, India, US, China).
- Inventory Build-up: Mild supply surplus in European and Asian hubs leading to softer prices for some grades.
- Rising Premiums: Highest prices continue for Turkish organic and high-grade sultanas, reflecting steady demand for premium categories.
- Consumption Trends: Steady retail and food service demand in Europe, Middle East, and Asia counterbalancing weaker industrial uptake in some regions.
📊 Fundamentals and External Influences
- Recent Events: Tajikistan’s strong appearance at Anuga aids in market expansion. No major supply shocks reported globally.
- USDA and Local Agency Data: Global output for the 2025/26 crop year expected to hold steady; no significant crop losses reported in Turkey or India, the two major origins.
- Speculative Positioning: Light speculative involvement given soft price trends and ample inventory.
- Currency Volatility: Slight weakness in INR and TRY has not notably altered export competitiveness yet, but should be monitored.
🌦️ Weather & Regional Outlook
- Turkey: Mild and favorable autumn conditions in the Aegean and Eastern Anatolia; production outlook remains robust with low frost/disease risk.
- India: Stable post-monsoon weather supports ongoing harvests in Maharashtra.
- California: Recent rains did not impact harvest significantly; yields expected to be average.
- Central Asia: Tajikistan and Uzbekistan benefit from dry weather, enabling ideal sun drying and high-quality output.
🌐 Production & Stocks: Export/Import Comparison
| Country | 2025/26 Output (Est. 000t) | Exports (Est. 000t) | Stocks (000t) | Major Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 320 | 270 | 30 | EU, Russia, ME |
| India | 225 | 70 | 40 | Asia, EU |
| USA | 225 | 50 | 30 | NAFTA, Asia |
| China | 175 | 55 | 20 | Asia, EU |
| Tajikistan/CA | 27 | 20 | 5 | EU, Russia |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Lock in contracts for organic and premium Turkish sultanas where supply is stable and price is firming.
- Importers: Explore new sourcing relationships with Tajik exporters to capitalize on quality and traceability.
- Producers: Emphasize full traceability and quality certification to tap into premium price opportunities.
- Traders: Watch for short-term dips in European spot prices as inventory moves through supply chain.
- Monitor: Currency shifts (INR, TRY) and ongoing weather conditions for possible volatility impact by late Q4.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Type | Exchange/Market | Oct 4 | Oct 5 | Oct 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden, Grade AA | New Delhi FOB | 1.97 EUR/kg | 1.97 EUR/kg | 1.96 EUR/kg |
| Brown, Grade AA | New Delhi FOB | 1.51 EUR/kg | 1.50 EUR/kg | 1.50 EUR/kg |
| Sultana, Type 9 Grade AA | Turkey/Malatya FOB | 3.7 EUR/kg | 3.7 EUR/kg | 3.7 EUR/kg |
| Sultana, Type 9, Organic | Turkey/Malatya FOB | 4.0 EUR/kg | 4.0 EUR/kg | 4.0 EUR/kg |
