🌽 Prices Decline for Fourth Consecutive Session – USDA Outlook Forum in Focus 📉
📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: Corn futures in Chicago declined for the fourth consecutive session. The most actively traded May contract fell by 0.75 ct to 493.5 ct/bu (185 EUR/t).
🔹 Euronext: The corn market showed mixed movements, with the most traded June contract gaining 0.25 EUR to 220 EUR/t.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. USDA Outlook Forum – First 2025 Corn Acreage Projections
- The USDA will release its first projections for the 2025 corn crop at the Outlook Forum today.
- Market participants are closely watching early acreage estimates, which are expected to show an increase of 2.9 million acres to 93.5 million acres.
- Analyst estimates range between 92 to 95.1 million acres.
- The USDA’s projection is based on farmer surveys, and it could set the tone for market direction in the coming weeks.
📌 2. Uncertainty Over Tariffs on Canadian & Mexican Imports
- It remains unclear whether the U.S. will impose the planned 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports by March 4 or postpone the decision to April 2.
- Originally, President Trump had intended to raise tariffs in early February.
- Any implementation could disrupt North American trade flows, potentially impacting corn exports and feed demand.
📌 3. U.S. Ethanol Production & Stocks
- The weekly EIA report showed a drop in ethanol production for the week ending February 21:
- Production fell by 3,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.081 million bpd.
- However, ethanol stocks saw their largest weekly increase since January 2023, rising by 1.353 million barrels to 27.571 million barrels.
- A growing ethanol stockpile could indicate weaker demand or an oversupply situation, potentially affecting corn prices.
📌 4. USDA Export Report Expectations
- Export sales expectations for the week ending February 20:
- Old crop: 900,000 – 1.65 million tons.
- New crop: 0 – 100,000 tons.
- Traders will be closely monitoring this data to assess whether demand remains strong enough to support prices in the short term.
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 478.25 | 478.25 | 481.25 | 477.50 | 479.50 | +1.25 | +0.26% |
| May 25 | 493.50 | 493.50 | 496.25 | 492.50 | 494.25 | +0.75 | +0.15% |
| Jul 25 | 498.50 | 498.50 | 501.25 | 497.50 | 499.25 | +0.75 | +0.15% |
| Sep 25 | 467.25 | 466.75 | 468.25 | 465.75 | 467.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Dec 25 | 467.00 | 465.75 | 467.50 | 465.25 | 466.75 | -0.25 | -0.05% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 220.25 | – | – | – | 220.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Jun 25 | 220.00 | – | – | – | 220.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Aug 25 | 224.25 | – | – | – | 224.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 217.25 | – | – | – | 217.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Mar 26 | 224.00 | – | – | – | 224.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔽 Likely Downward Pressure | USDA Acreage Data, U.S. Export Sales |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Stable to Slightly Lower | Stronger Euro, Weather in South America |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Potential Price Support | Rainfall & Delays in Second Corn Crop |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Some relief from rain, but concerns remain.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Scattered rains continue, especially in central and southern regions.
- 🌡 Temperatures remain above average, particularly in the north.
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🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Planting delays due to wet weather in Mato Grosso.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rain is expected to persist in northern & central regions, affecting soybean harvest.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in the south could allow planting progress.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
🛑 Since the start of our reporting, global corn stocks have declined by a total of 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 384 | -0.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil continues steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📌 Summary & Key Takeaways
✅ USDA Outlook Forum’s acreage estimate is a key event this week.
✅ Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs on Canada & Mexico adds pressure.
✅ South American weather remains a wildcard – rain in Argentina vs. wet delays in Brazil.
✅ Corn futures face potential volatility as traders digest USDA data.
📢 Stay tuned for further updates on the USDA Outlook Forum & South American crop developments! 🚀
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