Increased Demand Amid Production Reductions
The reduction in barley production forecasts in major exporting countries has slightly increased demand for barley in Ukraine. However, there is currently no hope for a significant boost in barley exports in the new season.
Current Price Trends
Purchase prices for feed barley with delivery to Black Sea ports have not received strong support from the speculative price increases for feed wheat and corn, which rose to $200 and $185 per ton respectively in May. However, barley prices have increased from $150-155 per ton to $160-165 per ton or UAH 7,400-7,500 per ton and remain at this level at the start of the season. Notably, last year, barley prices at the beginning of the season fell to $130-140 per ton or UAH 5,200-5,500 per ton with delivery to Black Sea ports.
Malting Barley Demand
The demand for malting barley in Ukraine will remain low this season, as malting plants have sufficient stocks from the previous harvest and currently offer forward prices at the level of UAH 6,500-7,000 per ton with delivery to the plant, compared to UAH 8,000-8,500 per ton a year ago.
Export Figures and Harvesting Updates
As of June 17, Ukraine has exported 2.457 million tons of barley since the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year, which is slightly lower than last year’s figure of 2.67 million tons. The export pace has significantly slowed in May and June.
Barley harvesting in Romania has already begun, with about 10% harvested and yields ranging from 6-8 tons per hectare with good quality indicators (natural weight of 640-670 g/l), causing price reductions. Full-scale harvesting is expected to begin in 10-14 days. Offer prices for Romanian barley have decreased to around $188 per ton FOB Constanta, which matches the offer levels for Ukrainian barley of $185-190 per ton FOB Black Sea ports, making Ukrainian barley non-competitive.
European and Global Production Forecasts
According to the European Commission, barley production in Romania in 2024 could reach 2.2 million tons, slightly lower than the 2.3 million tons produced last year.
In the June supply and demand report, USDA experts reduced the global barley production forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year by 1.95 million tons to 147.96 million tons, which is still 5.75 million tons more than in the 2023/24 marketing year. The barley harvest forecast for the EU was reduced by 0.7 million tons to 53.8 million tons, for Russia by 0.5 million tons to 19 million tons, for Argentina by 0.5 million tons to 4.7 million tons, and for Ukraine by 0.2 million tons to 5 million tons. Conversely, the forecast for Australia was increased by 0.6 million tons to 11.5 million tons.
Consumption and Export Forecasts
The forecast for global barley consumption in the 2024/25 marketing year was also reduced by 0.83 million tons to 149.44 million tons, which is higher than the previous season’s figure of 143.79 million tons.
The reduced harvest will lead to a decrease in barley exports in the 2024/25 year from the EU by 0.2 million tons to 7.3 million tons, from Russia by 0.3 million tons to 4.8 million tons, from Argentina by 0.3 million tons to 3.2 million tons, and from Ukraine by 0.1 million tons to 2.2 million tons. The export forecast for Australia was increased by 0.6 million tons to 5.6 million tons.
Ending Stocks
The estimate of global barley ending stocks was reduced by 0.27 million tons to 18.27 million tons, which will be 0.6 million tons less than in the previous season and significantly lower than the 5-year average.
The barley market is experiencing fluctuations due to varying production forecasts and export demands. Stakeholders should remain aware of changing conditions to make informed decisions.