Raisin Market Faces Unprecedented Rally on Supply Crunch and Festive Demand

The global raisin market has entered a phase of significant volatility and strong upward momentum, propelled by an exceptional supply shortage and robust demand ahead of key festive periods. Production shortfalls, notably in major producing regions like India, have led to a market where supplies are tightly held by stockists anticipating even higher highs. As the Diwali season approaches and with little hope for fresh arrivals until February, both wholesale and export prices have surged to multi-year, if not historic, levels.

Traders and buyers report that price increases over the past several weeks have already exceeded seasonal averages by a wide margin—cumulative gains of $1.80–$1.92/kg are being observed, and the psychological threshold of $6 is within striking distance. Concerns about consumer resistance to high prices are brewing, but so far, the supply deficit—caused by poor grape harvests, high input costs, and depleted old stocks—is overriding any demand destruction. The consequences are being felt internationally, as buyers turn to alternative origins and imports might rise. The strong bullish sentiment is likely to persist, especially with stockists largely controlling the pace of sales and buyers aggressively covering positions.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Market Sentiment
IR	Light brown, premium	Tehran	FOB	1.69	1.66	+1.8%	Bullish
IR	Dark brown, type 9, premium	Tehran	FOB	1.63	1.59	+2.5%	Bullish
IR	Sundried	Tehran	FOB	1.63	1.58	+3.2%	Bullish
IN	Golden, grade aa	New Delhi	FOB	1.91	1.91	0	Stable/Bullish
TR	Sultanas, grade a	Malatya	FOB	3.65	3.65	0	Stable/High

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: India, one of the world’s largest raisin producers, saw a 50–55% drop in output this year (only 10,000–11,000 carts vs. the normal 22,000–25,000). This sharp decrease stems from poor grape harvests and soaring input costs.
• Stock Position: Stock in the hands of stockists: with few new arrivals expected before February, stockists are holding back sales to maximize returns amid tight supply.
• Demand: Festive demand ahead of Diwali is creating strong buying interest— buyers anticipate further price hikes and are actively purchasing even at elevated prices.
• International Trend: With domestic prices blazing, imports into India may increase to plug the supply gap. Globally, buyers are seeking alternatives, with Turkish and Iranian offers seeing steady to firm prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production Estimates: Only 10,000–11,000 carts produced versus an average of 22,000–25,000 (~50-55% shortfall).
• Inventory: Minimal carryover from previous year due to last year’s weak crop further amplifies the supply crunch.
• Speculative Positioning: Bullish sentiment dominates as stockists and traders withhold sales, betting on continued price appreciation.
• Producer Prices: Wholesale in Pandharpur reported at $4.79–$5.39/kg, reflecting an increase of $0.60–$0.72/kg in just 2–3 weeks. Projections of $5.99+/kg for peak festive demand.
• Consumption Risk: High prices may dampen off-season demand, but current tightness outweighs this risk in the short term.

⛅ Weather Outlook and Regional Impact

• India: Post-harvest dry weather in Maharashtra and Karnataka has ensured quality but did little to boost production, which was already set low by adverse conditions earlier in the year. Weather is currently favorable for storage and transit.
• Turkey/Iran: Mild, stable conditions continue, with key production areas benefiting from normal summer weather. No significant threat to current stocks or export programs.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (t)	Prev. Year (t)	Stock Position
India	~110,000	~220,000	Extremely tight
Turkey	270,000	280,000	Plentiful, but firm demand
Iran	150,000	160,000	Normal
USA (CA)	200,000	195,000	Stable

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term market bias remains strongly bullish due to unprecedented supply tightness and soaring demand.
• Buyers: Cover forward requirements promptly; any dips are likely to be minimal and brief.
• Stockists/Traders: Consider releasing stocks gradually to optimize returns as the market approaches the festive peak.
• Importers: Monitor international markets (Turkey, Iran, USA) as alternative sources—spreads may widen.
• Watch: Policy decisions, tariffs, and currency moves, especially if imports spike to offset Indian shortfall.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Expected Price (EUR/kg)	Direction
India (Pandharpur)	4.79–5.39 (USD/kg)	5.20–5.60 (USD/kg)	Up
Tehran FOB Premium	1.69	1.75	Up
Malatya FOB Sultana	3.65	3.70	Up