Raisin Market Heats Up: Supply Collapse Spurs Sharp Price Surge Across Grades

This season, the global raisin market is in the grip of a dramatic supply squeeze, driving prices to multi-year highs and leaving buyers scrambling for remaining stocks. Production estimates from India’s top-producing Sangli-Miraj belt show a staggering decline of nearly 50%—a situation compounded by depleted old inventories. Amid robust demand, particularly with key Indian festivals on the horizon, the market is witnessing feverish activity and broad-based price escalation. Medium-grade raisins are now fetching between 3.92 and 4.22 USD/kg, and there is widespread market chatter that prices could breach the 6 USD/kg mark in the weeks ahead. Low-end varieties, too, are rising steadily, while better grades are changing hands at nearly double their seasonal lows. With only 38–40% of normal stocks left, and the new crop still weeks away, the mood remains unambiguously bullish across producer and consumption centers. Meanwhile, European and global FOB/CIF prices are also posting gains, as shortages ripple through export corridors and buyers continue to chase volume. Processing demand is firm, old stocks are nearly gone, and weather uncertainties linger for the next harvest. Against this backdrop, the trading landscape remains nervy, and careful timing will be critical for both procurement and sales in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Origin	Grade/Type	Location	Currency	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
IN (Maharashtra)	Medium grade	Sangli-Miraj	USD	3.92–4.22	2.41–2.47 (season start)	+73%	Very firm
IN	High grade	Tasgaon	USD	4.46–4.52	2.41–2.47 (season start)	+83%	Rising
IN	Low grade	Delhi	USD	1.20–1.27	2.65–2.71 (few months ago)	-53%	Corrected
TR	Sultanas, type 9, RTU	MALATYA	EUR	2.4	2.4	0%	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 8, grade A	MALATYA	EUR	3.55	3.4	+4.4%	Firm
TR	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	MALATYA	EUR	3.65	3.5	+4.3%	Firming
TR	Sultanas, type 10, grade A	MALATYA	EUR	4.05	3.9	+3.8%	Firming

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Production down by ~50%, especially acute in Maharashtra. Only 38–40% of normal stock remains market-wide.
• Consumption: Demand is intensifying in Delhi, UP, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh—especially ahead of the Shravan and Raksha Bandhan festivals.
• Trade activity: Both processors and secondary buyers are active. Procurement remains steady despite high prices.
• Global market: Turkish, Iranian, and Chinese sultana/raisin export offers show moderate firmness; European CIF/FOB prices also rise.
• Old stocks: Nearly exhausted across India and major re-export hubs—especially in yellow/green varieties; new supplies pending.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory situation: Severely depleted, with very limited pipeline stock until new crop arrivals.
• Processing demand: Remains robust—bakeries, confectioners, and processed food sectors contributing to steady off-take.
• Speculative position: Stockists and traders holding product are in a strong position; risk of further upside if festival demand exceeds expectations.
• Historical comparison: Prices for medium and top grades are now 70–80% above start-of-season lows.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India (Maharashtra): Southwest Monsoon arrived later than usual, with initial patchy rainfall. Weather models forecast improved precipitation in July, but late arrival may curtail grape yields for next season’s raisin crop.
• Turkey: Moderate weather for sultana crop development, but excessive summer heat risks cannot be ruled out. Quality outlook remains stable for now.
• Iran: Favorable early season, but isolated cases of heat stress possible in August—monitor for potential downgrades.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Trends

Country	2024/25 Est. Prod. (kt)	Change YoY (%)	2024/25 Est. Stock (kt)	Comments
India	100–120	-45	Low	Major deficit; near-exhausted pipeline
Turkey	320–340	+4	Moderate	Sultana exports steady, stocks drawing down
Iran	170–180	-2	Low-moderate	Premium grades in demand
China	180–200	+1	Moderate	CIF offers firm; steady export flow
USA (CA)	204	0	Moderate-high	Exportable surplus available; prices stable

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• 🟩 Buyers: Secure forward cover—medium and higher grades will remain tight and prone to price spikes near festival demand periods.
• 🟨 Sellers: Hold remaining inventories where possible—further price rises anticipated until new crop supplies arrive.
• 🟧 Processors: Stagger procurement; prioritize high-quality grades as these will tighten first.
• 🟩 Importers: Monitor Turkish, Iranian, and US shipment schedules for quick market entry; expect continued firmness in CIF/FOB offers.
• 🟧 Watch: Indian weather and late monsoon progression closely—any further adverse developments could lift prices further.

⏰ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Variety/Grade	Today	Day 2	Day 3
IN (Sangli-Miraj)	Medium grade	4.10 USD/kg	4.20 USD/kg	4.25 USD/kg
TR (Malatya/Export)	Sultana, Type 9	3.65 EUR/kg	3.70 EUR/kg	3.75 EUR/kg
DE (Hamburg CIF)	Sultana, Type 9	2.09 EUR/kg	2.12 EUR/kg	2.18 EUR/kg