Raisin Market in Flux: Supply Gaps and Turkish Exports Shape Spring Dynamics

The global raisin market is facing crucial turning points this season, with Turkish supply and pricing now at the heart of industry attention. Trade disruptions arising from the ongoing conflict involving Iran, as well as challenges in Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, have effectively barred exports from these key origins to Europe. This supply vacuum has amplified the significance of Turkish raisins on the world stage. While the UK has notably increased its purchases by 200 tons weekly—now totaling 1,000 tons per week—Turkey’s overall weekly raisin exports as of March 7th dropped to 2,800 tons.

That’s 450 tons less than the same period last year. Interestingly, despite this demand from the UK, a substantial amount of unsold raw material remains in Turkish warehouses as the export season draws to a close. Producers are holding back stock, anticipating a price rally. Meanwhile, a warming trend in Türkiye’s Aegean vineyards is expected to spur additional activity in the coming week, potentially influencing near-term supply. The interplay of these factors—regional conflict, changing trade dynamics, inventory levels, and weather—promises a volatile but opportunity-rich market landscape as spring unfolds for raisin traders and buyers alike.

📈 Prices

Origin	Product/Type	Grade	Delivery Terms	Location	Current Price (EUR)	Previous Price (EUR)	Update Date	Sentiment
TR	Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU	RTU	CIF	Malatya	2.40	2.40	2026-03-10	Stable, upside risk
TR	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	A	FOB	Malatya	2.28	2.28	2026-03-10	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 8, grade A	A	FOB	Malatya	2.25	2.25	2026-03-10	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 10, grade A	A	FOB	Malatya	2.58	2.58	2026-03-10	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic	A (Organic)	FOB	Malatya	3.10	3.10	2026-03-10	Stable
TR	Nr. 9, RTU	RTU	FCA	Dordrecht (NL)	2.90	2.90	2026-03-06	Firm (limited supply)
CN	Sultanas, std, no: 9, grade AA	AA	FCA	Dordrecht (NL)	2.20	2.20	2026-03-06	Stable
CN	Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD	STD	FCA	Hamburg (DE)	2.21	2.20	2026-03-09	Stable
IN	Golden, grade AA	AA	FOB	New Delhi	2.31	2.29	2026-03-06	Stable
IN	Brown, grade AA	AA	FOB	New Delhi	1.86	1.84	2026-03-06	Stable
IN	Black, grade AA	AA	FOB	New Delhi	1.80	1.78	2026-03-06	Stable
AF	Feed, brown	–	FCA	Dordrecht (NL)	1.95	1.95	2026-03-06	Stable (trade disruptions)
CL	Flame jumbo	–	FCA	Dordrecht (NL)	2.50	2.50	2026-03-06	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Key origin disruptions: Raisin exports from Iran, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan to Europe are effectively halted due to war and trade barriers, creating an acute supply gap.
• Turkey’s critical role: With European buyers unable to import from aforementioned origins, Turkish product has gained increasing importance. UK imports from Turkey surged by 200 tons per week to 1,000 tons.
• Seasonal decline in exports: Despite increased demand from the UK, Turkish weekly exports fell to 2,800 tons (down 450 tons over last year). End-of-season stock remains unusually high.
• Producer behavior: Many Turkish holders are restraining sales, positioning for potential price increases amid limited alternative supply.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks: Significant Turkish raw material inventory remains unsold near season’s end.
• Prices: Turkish raw material (type 9) priced at 95 TL, with exporters anticipating higher price levels ahead due to reduced competition and sticky inventory.
• Demand: UK, followed by EU, is the main growth market. Lack of Iranian, Uzbek, and Afghan competition supports Turkish sellers.
• Speculative position: Turkish market sentiment is generally bullish among holders, though actual trading activity is sluggish due to price expectations.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Türkiye’s Aegean Region)

• Rising temperatures predicted for next week, encouraging vineyard work and suggesting good conditions for the new crop if trend persists.
• No immediate adverse weather risks detected, but vigilance is warranted during flowering and fruit set phases in spring.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Turkey: Main supplier to Europe due to competitor disruption.
• Iran/Uzbekistan/Afghanistan: Exports largely absent from market.
• India/China: Prices remain stable, but trade volume to the EU is limited compared to Turkish dominance.
• Chile: Supply present but not filling the European product preference gap.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish bias for Turkish raisins, especially grades 9 and 10, due to restricted competition and producer holding pattern.
• Watch for possible price jumps if stocks remain unsold as the season closes and demand persists.
• Short-term: Tight supply likely to put upward pressure on Turkish export prices in coming weeks unless significant volumes are released from stocks.
• Importers should consider timely securing contracts, especially for UK/EU destinations, before new seasonal harvest uncertainty emerges.
• Monitor weather in the Aegean region for potential impact on the new season outlook.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin & Location	Grade/Type	Current Price (EUR)	Forecast Trend (Next 3 Days)
Türkiye – Malatya	Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU	2.40	Stable to slightly firmer
Türkiye – Malatya	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	2.28	Stable, upward risk
EU – Dordrecht	Nr. 9, RTU	2.90	Stable

• Key Watch: Turkey’s pace of old crop stock sales; any change in weather, trade flows, or political developments in key producing regions.