Raisin Market Sizzles: Supply Shocks, Climatic Threats & Rising Prices Illuminate 2025

The global raisin market is currently experiencing a period of unusual volatility and heightened attention. Triggered by political unrest in major producing regions and compounded by severe weather events, prices have been trending upward across the board. Iran, long a powerful presence in the international raisin sector, faces ongoing conflict and widespread embargoes; yet, it has managed to maintain export activity. This resilience, however, has shifted a wave of demand toward Turkish raisins, especially as damage from late spring frosts in Türkiye has decimated over 90% of some vineyards. Turkish farmers, already strained by crop losses and increasingly selling their last reserves, now benefit from firming prices as European buyers scramble for alternative sources.

These market dynamics are further fueled by an anxiously observed weather pattern as the harvest approaches. Unseasonably warm conditions persist in key Turkish growing areas, with a risk of damaging hail looming as the weekend draws near. With fundamentals skewed by tight supply, accelerated buying, and speculation over future yields, all participants—growers, traders, and buyers alike—are closely monitoring developments. As natural and organic raisins become increasingly scarce, competition for the remaining stocks has grown fierce.

📈 Prices: Current Raisin Market Snapshot

Origin	Type/Grade	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Türkiye	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	Malatya	FOB	3.50	3.50	2025-06-17	Firm/Bullish
Türkiye	Sultanas, type 10, grade A	Malatya	FOB	3.90	3.90	2025-06-17	Firm/Bullish
Türkiye	Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU	Malatya	CIF	2.40	2.40	2025-06-04	Steady/Rising
Iran	Kashmari, green premium	Tehran	FOB	2.48	2.40	2025-05-31	Stable/Rising
Iran	Dark brown, type 9, malayer	Tehran	FOB	1.80	1.80	2025-05-31	Stable/Higher Risk
China	Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD	Hamburg	FCA	2.09	2.08	2025-06-24	Firm/Bullish
India	Golden, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.91	1.91	2025-06-21	Stable
India	Brown, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.45	1.45	2025-06-21	Stable
Chile	Flame Jumbo	Dordrecht	FCA	2.38	2.38	2025-06-21	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Disruptions: Ongoing war in Iran, a top global raisin supplier, disrupts traditional flows but exports persist despite sanctions.
• European Demand Shift: EU buyers increasingly turn to Türkiye, despite supply constraints and price hikes, due to uncertainty around Iranian availability.
• Severe Crop Damage: Over 90% vineyard damage reported in Türkiye’s main regions after spring frost, drastically reducing available supply.
• Organic & Natural Scarcity: Farmers are now selling through their last stocks of premium natural/organic raisins, pushing premium prices higher.
• Speculative Activity: Traders anticipate tighter supplies and further price increases as the harvest nears and climatic risks persist.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Trade

• Turkey: 2nd largest global exporter, major supply contraction expected for 2025 due to heavy frost losses; transition year with dwindling stocks.
• Iran: Remains in market despite destabilization; offers priced at a discount due to reputational and logistical risk, but volumes stay robust.
• India & China: Stable output and pricing; seen as fallback sources, but limited ability to fully offset Mediterranean shortages.
• Stock Status: Premium and organic inventories at farm-level near depletion in Türkiye; Iranian and Indian stocks stable, but access and shipping remain challenging.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Growing Region Risk Assessment

• Türkiye (Malatya, Manisa): Above-average warmth continues; hail risk forecasted for weekend—potential for additional crop losses and quality downgrades if realized.
• Iran: Unsettled but warm; main growing season stable—minor risk for late rain events, but overall outlook better than Türkiye.
• India (Maharashtra): Monsoon onset timely; no major adverse events reported—favorable for stable output.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025 Output Outlook	Stock Status	Main Export Destinations
Türkiye	Severely Lower (~90% loss in some regions)	Depleted, especially organic/natural	EU, Russia, Middle East
Iran	Stable to slightly lower (war risks)	Stable	Asia, Middle East, Europe
India	Stable	Normal	Asia-Pacific, Middle East
China	Stable	Normal	Europe, Asia
Chile	Stable	Normal	Europe, USA

🔎 Market Drivers & Comparisons

• Last report highlighted growing weather uncertainty, but recent frosts and hail risks have rapidly materialized, pushing prices sharply higher across Turkish grades.
• Compared to previous period: Price gains are now entrenched, with traders paying premiums for old-crop and off-spec origins; global trade is increasingly risk-driven.

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📊 Buyers: Secure forward contracts now, particularly for Turkish and premium origins. Expect continued price firming as supplies dwindle.
• 📊 Growers: Hold remaining stock, especially organic/natural, for potential additional price gains as competition intensifies for limited lots.
• 📊 Traders: Monitor weather developments in Türkiye and international sanctions on Iran for volatility triggers.
• 📊 Importers: Diversify sourcing—consider alternative shippers like India and China for partial risk mitigation.
• 📊 Speculators: Bullish bias warranted; high volatility likely near harvest with weather threats and political events.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Recent Price (EUR/kg)	Direction	Forecast Range
Türkiye	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	3.50	↗️ Up	3.50 – 3.65
Iran	Kashmari, green premium	2.48	➡️ Steady/Up	2.40 – 2.60
China	Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD	2.09	⏸ Steady	2.08 – 2.12
India	Golden, grade AA	1.91	⏸ Steady	1.90 – 1.95