The global raisin market entered early June 2025 sailing through relatively calm waters, characterised by limited price movement and sparse market news. The Bayram holiday has led to a pause in activity across key origins such as Turkey and Iran, resulting in steady prices and minimal new deals. However, nuances remain: minor adjustments in India’s FOB prices capture some ongoing local dynamics, while Turkish sultana varieties saw fractional gains week-on-week, indicating potential pent-up demand once the holiday lull recedes. International buyers and sellers are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, with supply pipelines remaining well-stocked and no immediate threats to global inventories.
Against this backdrop, attention now shifts to weather patterns affecting vineyards in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly as flowering and fruit set occur in Mediterranean, Californian, and Central Asian regions. Early outlooks hint at mixed weather, raising the stakes for crop yield and quality in upcoming harvests. For traders and processors, the key is vigilance—while the current holiday-driven inertia suggests market stability, any abrupt weather deviation could quickly reprice expectations. Strategic positioning remains essential as market participants prepare for the post-holiday resumption and await new fundamental signals from the field and the latest trade flows.
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Raisins
golden, grade aa
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Raisins
brown, grade aa
FOB 1.45 €/kg
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Raisins
black, grade aa
FOB 1.40 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Location | Type / Grade | Delivery | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Week (USD/kg) | Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | New Delhi | Golden, AA | FOB | 1.91 | 1.91 | 0.0% | Stable |
| IN | New Delhi | Brown, AA | FOB | 1.45 | 1.47 | -1.4% | Soft |
| IN | New Delhi | Black, AA | FOB | 1.40 | 1.42 | -1.4% | Soft |
| TR | MALATYA | Sultanas, type 10, A | FOB | 3.90 | 3.90 | 0.0% | Stable |
| TR | MALATYA | Sultanas, type 9, A | FOB | 3.50 | 3.40 | +2.9% | Firm |
| TR | MALATYA | Sultanas, type 9, RTU | CIF | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.0% | Stable |
| CL | Dordrecht | Flame Jumbo | FCA | 2.41 | 2.41 | 0.0% | Calm |
| CN | Hamburg | Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD | FCA | 2.11 | 2.04 | +3.4% | Firm |
| IR | Tehran | Kashmari, green premium | FOB | 2.48 | 2.40 | +3.3% | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply remains ample in major producing regions (Turkey, Iran, India, China), with the Bayram holiday temporarily curtailing Turkish and Iranian exports.
- Demand is steady from key importers (EU, Russia, North America), but many buyers are delaying purchases, awaiting post-holiday signals and updated crop forecasts.
- Turkish sultana prices edged up slightly, signalling that traders anticipate stronger post-holiday demand or are repositioning amid inventory assessments.
📊 Fundamentals
- Last Report Comparison: No significant change from last week; pricing largely stable with minor shifts in Indian and Turkish markets.
- Inventories: Stocks remain comfortable due to robust prior harvests and slow recent drawdowns.
- Speculative Positioning: Neutral, as most market participants are sidelined, awaiting fresh data from the field once operations resume post-holiday.
- USDA/Export Updates: No new USDA or official export data released during the holiday period.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Mediterranean (Turkey): Unsettled weather with some sporadic rainfall; risks to flowering and fruit set for new crop identified, close monitoring warranted.
- California (USA): Favourable early summer conditions, but water scarcity remains a latent concern for growers.
- Iran/Central Asia: Mild but slightly drier than average; threats remain low for now, but drier stretches could affect berry size and yield.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Est. 2024/25 Production (t) | 2023/24 Stocks (t) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | ~300,000 | ~40,000 | 35% |
| Iran | ~160,000 | ~24,000 | 20% |
| USA | ~220,000 | ~50,000 | 25% |
| China | ~140,000 | ~18,000 | 8% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect market activity to rebound as Turkish and Iranian exporters return post-Bayram; price direction may hinge on updated crop and weather news.
- Buyers should consider building coverage for Q3 to hedge any potential weather disruptions affecting summer crop development.
- Monitor weather updates—particular attention to Mediterranean and California for any stress on yield/quality.
- Sellers: Hold offers firm; limited downside risk in the short term as stocks remain in balance and new demand may emerge post-holiday.
- Watch for updated export data and announcements from the USDA and Turkish exporters’ unions as the next key signals.
🚦 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- India (FOB New Delhi): Stable to slightly softer; minor downside risk as market remains oversupplied and muted until post-holiday pickups.
- Turkey (FOB Malatya): Steady, with a mild firming bias; prices likely to remain elevated as trade resumes and supply is gradually released.
- EU Ports (FCA Hamburg, Dordrecht): Largely unchanged, with moderate buy-side interest expected to build by week’s end.
