The global raisin market has entered an exceptionally dynamic phase. Trade activity intensified this week, especially in key local markets, with strong export interest persisting beyond typical season-end patterns. In Turkey, the world’s leading sultana supplier, local farmers are holding back inventory, leveraging price hikes driven by a unique set of market and geopolitical forces. Sales are brisk where needed — particularly for immediate cash flow before holidays — but the general strategy remains withholding product for future gains. Turkish sultana prices currently trade between 3,500–3,800 USD/ton, while broader expectations among producers are rising toward the 5 USD/kg mark.
This bullish outlook is underpinned by extreme weather conditions: prolonged drought and recent frosts have severely impacted vineyards, particularly across Turkey’s and Iran’s main production belts. Simultaneously, the outbreak of conflict in Iran — a powerhouse rival exporter — is reshaping the global supply map. European buyers, largely cut off from Iranian origins, are turning to Turkey, escalating demand and reinforcing upward price momentum. With raw material stocks limited and market uncertainty at its peak, both buyers and sellers are operating with heightened caution. Definitive pricing and volume clarity will likely crystallise by the end of July, contingent on weather developments and harvest progress. Overall, fundamentals align for a strong and potentially volatile rally in global raisin prices — a trend that could redefine procurement and trading strategies for months to come.
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Raisins
sultanas, type 9, rtu grade STD
FCA 2.08 €/kg
(from DE)
Raisins
golden, grade aa
FOB 1.91 €/kg
(from IN)
Raisins
brown, grade aa
FOB 1.45 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Latest Raisin Offers & Market Movements
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Update | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD | China | Hamburg, DE | FCA | 2.08 | 2.11 | 2025-06-17 | Weak, slight drop |
| Golden, grade AA | India | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.91 | 1.91 | 2025-06-14 | Stable |
| Brown, grade AA | India | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.45 | 1.45 | 2025-06-14 | Stable |
| Sultanas, nr. 9, RTU | Turkey | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 2.77 | 2.8 | 2025-06-13 | Slight drop, strong demand |
| Sultanas, type 9, grade A | Turkey | Malatya, TR | FOB | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2025-06-04 | Firm, rising |
| Sultanas, type 10, grade A | Turkey | Malatya, TR | FOB | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2025-06-04 | Stable, premium |
| Light brown, premium | Iran | Tehran, IR | FOB | 1.84 | 1.84 | 2025-05-31 | Steady, risk due to conflict |
| Kashmari, green premium | Iran | Tehran, IR | FOB | 2.48 | 2.4 | 2025-05-31 | Firm, possible disruptions |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Global Dynamics & Key Shifts
- Turkey: The world’s leading supplier of sultana raisins; production impacted by drought and frost. High domestic retention by farmers supports prices.
- Iran: Major exporter (Malayer, Kashmari, golden types) facing severe export risk due to conflict; European demand shifting dramatically toward Turkish origins.
- India: Stable domestic market with competitive pricing across golden, black, and brown AA grades.
- Europe: Increased import demand for Turkish origin amid limited Iranian access, supporting Turkish price premiums.
- Raw Material: Supplies are tight across all major origins, especially for premium and certified organic grades.
📊 Fundamentals: Key Drivers
- Geopolitics: Iranian conflict restricts export flows, rebalances demand to Turkey and alternative sources.
- Weather: Drought and frost have damaged vineyards in both Turkey and Iran, reducing the 2025/26 harvest potential.
- Farmer Positioning: Producers in Turkey are holding inventory, anticipating higher post-holiday prices and further market tightness.
- Export Trends: Turkish exports continue to be strong, but availability is limited to targeted sales; Indian offers remain competitive but face logistical hurdles to Europe.
- Speculation: Uncertainty regarding next harvest size and continued weather extremes fuels risk premiums in forward trades.
🌦 Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Anatolia (Turkey): Persistent drought and unseasonal frost over the main Manisa/Gediz Basin threaten yield formation. The next 2 weeks show continued below-average rainfall and high temperatures, raising crop stress and yield downgrade risks.
- Fars & Malayer (Iran): Dry and unstable weather persisted even before the conflict; further disruption to harvest logistics is possible if conflict zones expand.
- India (Maharashtra): Conditions are mostly stable with some patchy heat waves; expected production on par with recent years.
📉 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Output (k MT) | 2023/24 Output (k MT) | Ending Stocks (k MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 245 | 260 | 40 |
| Iran | 110 | 140 | 25 |
| India | 180 | 175 | 37 |
| China | 135 | 130 | 30 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Buyers: Secure coverage for Q3–Q4 needs promptly; premium and organic grades are particularly at risk of further price escalation.
- For Exporters: Withhold unsold inventory where possible. Monitor European demand and Iran-Turkey dynamics for further pricing power.
- Speculators: Favour long positions in Turkish and Iranian origins due to tightening fundamentals and heightened risk premiums; target late July for potential peak pricing as harvest clarity improves.
- Watchlist: Turkish weather, Iran geopolitical stability, late-June crop surveys, and European tender results are critical near-term signals.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- TR Malatya (FOB, Sultana): 3.5–3.9 EUR/kg, firm to higher on continuing shortages and strong EU demand
- Hamburg, DE (Chinese origin, FCA): 2.05–2.12 EUR/kg, stable with slight upward risk
- New Delhi, IN (FOB, Golden/Brown): 1.40–1.92 EUR/kg, stable, moderate upside
With all key indicators pointing to a tense and potentially bullish summer for raisins, proactive coverage is strongly advised for all stakeholders.
