There are reports that last year the harvesting of Raisins in Maharashtra was down by 32 per cent. Adding to this, the import of Raisins has stopped from Afghanistan for the time being. Since there is limited stock of the Raisins in the stores, the likelihood of prices moving downward for the commodity is unlikely.
Current Scenario
All these factors have led to the Raisin spot market being bullish. Moreover, with the one-month late sowing of the crop due to the weather, the harvest will be late too, which will keep the market high for the dry fruit.
- There are reports of grapes yield being down by 33 to 34 per cent during the season. This will result in a decrease in the production of raisins for the year.
- Furthermore, during the last six months, the Maharashtra traders are reported to fetch a reasonable price for the commodity because of the news of low fruit production and the old stock.
- The new harvest is not in full swing currently in the market, and the old stock is about to end; hence even when the season starts, the price is unlikely to go south for Raisins.
- It is important to note that the Tasgaon region had unfavourable weather, due to which there is a decrease in the production of grapes. As a result, the output of Raisins is likely to be less too. Last month, the Raisins sold in the Tasgaon spot markets, quoted between $2,14 and $2,27 per kg, are sold at $2,54 to $2,94 per kg.
- In other spot markets, the commodity which was earlier available at a price lower than $2,67 is now being sold at $3,08 – $3,21 per kg. The price is now expected to reach between $3,34 and $3,48 per kg in the coming days.
- Last year, the Raisins from Afghanistan in the Indian market were in equal quantity as the Indian Raisins. But this year, only 45 per cent of the imported raisins are available in the market. However, the current stop on the import has lowered the stock of the Kandhari raisin. This is expected to increase the commodity price by $0,47 to $0,54 per kg.
Prediction
These factors have led to the shortage of dry fruit, making the market appreciate the commodity. As per reports, this has increased the price by $0,67. The increase in the price is expected for the high-end quality products too. This is primarily because the old stock is almost 90 per cent sold before the new crop has arrived in the market.