Raisin Prices Skyrocket as Indian Supply Plummets: A Global Market Watch

The global raisin market is in the grip of severe supply constraints, particularly emanating from India, causing prices to surge to record highs. For the second consecutive year, India’s production has declined sharply, and Maharashtra—the country’s leading producing state—faces a significant shortfall, with the 2025 crop expected at just 14,000 to 15,000 carts compared to nearly 20,000 carts last year. At the wholesale markets in Maharashtra, prices have more than doubled year on year, soaring from $1.92–$2.04 per kg in June 2024 to $3.72–$3.96 per kg this June. This supply crunch, exacerbated by traders’ strategic withholding of stocks to capitalize on further price escalation, is pushing market sentiments toward even higher price levels, with forecasts suggesting the $4.20 mark is well within reach in the coming weeks.

Globally, the reduced Indian supply reverberates through export markets, as buyers turn toward Turkey, Iran, and other origins, keeping premium classes such as Turkish sultanas and Iranian green raisins buoyant. Weather anomalies, inventory drawdowns, and strong speculative positioning are all contributing to an environment of sustained price strength, while traders exercise caution amid the possibility of short-term profit booking. With less than half of India’s output having hit the market and no major relief in sight from key growing regions, elevated price levels are set to define the coming months for both traders and end-users.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Origin	Type	Grade	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
IN	Golden	AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.91	2.05	0%	Bullish
IN	Brown	AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.45	1.56	0%	Bullish
IN	Black	AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.40	1.50	0%	Bullish
TR	Sultanas	Type 10, Grade A	Malatya	FOB	3.90	4.20	0%	Bullish
TR	Sultanas	Type 9, Grade A, Organic	Malatya	FOB	4.00	4.31	0%	Strong Bullish
IR	Kashmari, Green Premium	–	Tehran	FOB	2.48	2.68	+3.3%	Bullish
CN	Sultanas	Std, Grade AA	Dordrecht	FCA	2.08	2.24	-1%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India Supply Crunch: 2025 production estimated at 14,000–15,000 carts, ~25% below 2024. Only 40–45% of crop has reached markets due to withholding by traders.
• Demand Resilience: International buyers, especially from the EU and Middle East, increase orders to offset lost Indian supply.
• Speculative Positioning: Strong upward bets as traders limit sales in expectation of further gains.
• Shift to Alternatives: Importers show greater reliance on Turkish and Iranian raisins, supporting their premium prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Production

• India: Top 3 producer globally; 2025 output at 14,000–15,000 carts vs. ~20,000 in 2024 and ~14,000–15,000 in 2023.
• Turkey: Export prices firm (Sultana Type 9 up to EUR 3.50–4.00/kg FOB). Decent carryover stocks, but filling India’s gap is challenging.
• Iran: Moderate inventory, price growth driven by premium varieties (Kashmari green up to EUR 2.48/kg FOB, +3.3% week).
• China: Stable output and price correction in standard grades (EUR 2.08–2.11/kg FCA Hamburg).

🌦️ Weather & Regional Outlook

• Maharashtra, IN: Ongoing concerns about excessive heat and below-normal precipitation for the early summer period may limit vine recovery and slow any rebound in yields for upcoming harvests.
• Turkey & Iran: Favorable conditions during bloom; harvest prospects healthy for main 2025 crop, but dryness risk lingers in select districts.
• Forecast Impact: Near-term supply shocks from India unlikely to be offset by global harvests, keeping prices elevated into late summer.

🔎 Global Stock Comparison

Country	2025 Output (est.)	2024 Output	Stocks Status
India	14,000–15,000 carts	19,000–20,000 carts	Critically Low
Turkey	>300,000 MT (all raisins)	320,000 MT	Moderate
Iran	~60,000 MT	65,000 MT	Firming
China	~160,000 MT	150,000 MT	Stable

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ✔️ Buyers: Secure forward contracts; limited Indian arrivals and global substitution will keep prices structurally high.
• ✔️ Sellers: Opportunities for strategic sales in coming weeks as prices target $4.20/kg (EUR 3.90–4.00) in India and maintain strength in Turkey and Iran.
• ✔️ Importers: Consider diversifying supply lines (Turkey, Iran); monitor short-term corrections closely for possible entry points.
• ✔️ Speculators: Short-term corrections possible but overall trend remains bullish as fundamentals support a tight market.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
New Delhi (IN)	Golden AA	1.91	1.95 – 2.02	⬆︎
New Delhi (IN)	Brown AA	1.45	1.48 – 1.52	⬆︎
Malatya (TR)	Sultanas Type 10	3.90	3.95 – 4.10	⬆︎
Tehran (IR)	Kashmari Green Premium	2.48	2.54 – 2.60	⬆︎