The global raisins market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as the current season draws to a close and attention turns to the upcoming harvest. Severe weather events, particularly the April frost in Turkey, have significantly altered expectations for both yield and pricing. While it is early for definitive estimates, the extent of vineyard damage has prompted both farmers and exporters to revise their outlooks sharply downward. Many anticipate yields falling below 200,000 tons—well under the historical average—fueling a bullish sentiment for prices in both domestic and export markets.
Compounding the situation, the demand from Raki producers, who require around 60,000 tons annually, will further tighten available supplies for export and consumption. With many vineyards reporting losses of 60% or more, and some facing total crop failure, the market is bracing for a supply squeeze not seen in recent years. Current spot prices remain stable, but forward-looking quotes and negotiations are already reflecting the potential for a significant rally, especially if July’s crop assessments confirm low yields. In this context, all eyes are on the evolving weather patterns and the next round of official yield estimates, which could catalyse a major price correction or escalation.
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Raisins
sultanas, type 9, grade RTU
CIF 2.40 €/kg
(from TR)
Raisins
sultanas, type 9, grade a
FOB 3.50 €/kg
(from TR)
Raisins
sultanas, type 8, grade A
FOB 3.40 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type & Grade | Delivery | Location | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU | CIF | Malatya | 2.40 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade A | FOB | Malatya | 3.40 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 8, grade A | FOB | Malatya | 3.35 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 10, grade A | FOB | Malatya | 3.90 | 0.00 | Firm |
| Turkey | Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic | FOB | Malatya | 4.00 | 0.00 | Firm |
| Iran | Golden premium | FOB | Tehran | 2.04 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| China | Sultanas, type 9, RTU grade STD | FCA | Hamburg | 2.11 | +0.07 | Firm |
| India | Golden, grade AA | FOB | New Delhi | 1.93 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| India | Brown, grade AA | FOB | New Delhi | 1.47 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| India | Black, grade AA | FOB | New Delhi | 1.42 | 0.00 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Turkey: The world’s leading raisin exporter faces a sharp drop in output due to widespread frost damage. Estimates now point to yields below 200,000 tons, compared to the usual 300,000 tons. Farmers and exporters expect prices to surge in response to the shortfall.
- Raki Industry: Domestic demand remains robust, with Raki producers requiring 60,000 tons for 2025. This will further constrain export availability.
- Export Markets: With tight Turkish supply, buyers are increasingly sourcing from Iran, China, and India, but these origins cannot fully offset the expected deficit.
- Inventories: Stocks are being sold at around 150 TL/kg, but forward prices are already factoring in the coming supply crunch.
📊 Fundamentals
- Yield-Price Relationship: Market price projections are highly sensitive to yield estimates:
- Yield 300,000 tons: $1,700/ton
- Yield 250,000 tons: $2,200/ton
- Yield 200,000 tons: $2,500/ton
- Yield <200,000 tons: $3,000+/ton (exporters’ expectations)
- Speculative Positioning: With most market participants expecting lower yields, speculative buying is likely to intensify as July approaches.
- Historical Comparison: Last season’s prices and yields were stable, but this year’s weather-driven disruptions mark a significant departure from the norm.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Turkey (Aegean & Malatya): April frosts caused extensive damage, with up to 60% losses in some vineyards and total loss in others. Current conditions remain volatile, with below-average rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures forecast for June, raising concerns about further stress on remaining vines.
- Iran & India: Weather conditions are generally favorable, but these origins have limited capacity to compensate for Turkish shortfalls.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (tons) | 2023/24 Production (tons) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | <200,000 (est.) | ~300,000 | Sharp Decline |
| Iran | ~150,000 | ~150,000 | Stable |
| China | ~120,000 | ~120,000 | Stable |
| India | ~100,000 | ~100,000 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Exporters: Consider holding stocks if feasible, as further price increases are likely if July crop estimates confirm low yields.
- For Importers: Secure contracts early, especially for premium grades, as supply tightens and prices are poised to rise sharply.
- For Speculators: Monitor July’s official yield reports closely; expect heightened volatility and potential for rapid price escalation.
- For Raki Producers: Lock in supply contracts now to avoid severe price spikes later in the season.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malatya (TR) | Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU | 2.40 | 2.40 – 2.60 | Bullish |
| Malatya (TR) | Sultanas, type 9, grade A | 3.40 | 3.40 – 3.60 | Bullish |
| Hamburg (DE) | Sultanas, type 9, RTU grade STD | 2.11 | 2.10 – 2.20 | Firm |
