Raisins Market Squeezed by Chinese Imports: Indian Prices Slide and Uncertain Outlook Grows

The global raisins market faces a pivotal moment as a surge of low-priced Chinese imports disrupts traditional supply chains and triggers a notable drop in Indian domestic prices. Indian raisin producers, already grappling with inconsistent demand and rising input costs, now contend with a flood of cheaper Chinese raisins that undercut local offerings by a significant margin. Indian wholesale markets are seeing prices around ₹60 per kg ($0.72/kg), nearly 20% below recent levels, creating mounting pressure on farmers whose margins are rapidly eroding. The All India Grape Growers Association (AIGGA) is sounding the alarm, warning that persistent imports at current volumes could exacerbate market instability.

As stakeholders weigh policy options—from tighter import controls to minimum price thresholds—market participants are bracing for further price volatility and uncertainty regarding the coming weeks’ production, trade flows, and demand recovery. The global outlook is further shaped by contracting European demand, steady but unspectacular Turkish and Iranian exports, and localized weather risks that may affect quality and availability in several key origins. In this turbulent environment, traders and producers must adapt quickly to shifting price structures and regulatory interventions that could reshape the competitive landscape.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Grade/Type	Location/Term	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
India	Golden AA	New Delhi/FOB	1.94	0%	Bearish
India	Brown AA	New Delhi/FOB	1.48	0%	Bearish
India	Black AA	New Delhi/FOB	1.44	0%	Bearish
China	Sultanas #9, Grade AA	Netherlands/FCA	2.12	-1.4%	Neutral
China	Sultanas Type 9 RTU STD	Germany/FCA	2.28	-1.3%	Neutral
Turkey	Sultanas #9, RTU	Malatya/CIF	2.40	0%	Neutral
Turkey	Sultanas #9, Grade A	Malatya/FOB	3.65	0%	Stable
Turkey	Sultanas Type 8, Grade A	Malatya/FOB	3.55	0%	Stable
Turkey	Sultanas Type 10, Grade A	Malatya/FOB	4.05	0%	Stable
Iran	Light Brown, Premium	Tehran/FOB	1.69	0%	Neutral
Iran	Kashmari Green	Tehran/FOB	2.66	+4.7%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Chinese Imports: A continued influx of inexpensive Chinese raisins in Indian and European markets is increasing competition, compressing margins and pressuring local prices.
• Indian Farmer Stress: Indian producers report up to 20% price declines from recent months, with further drops likely if import trends persist for another fortnight.
• Turkish Supply: Turkish prices remain stable amid steady output and no significant weather disruptions reported so far for the coming harvest.
• Demand: European demand is weaker; Indian domestic and export demand remains patchy with limited signs of immediate recovery.
• Policy Watch: Calls for government intervention, including import restrictions or minimum price levels, may alter trade dynamics soon.

📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Stock Data

• Major Exporters: Turkey, Iran, USA, China, India
• Current Inventory Levels:
  • India: Anecdotal reports of higher unsold stocks as farmers hold out for improved pricing.
  • China: Ample stock for export, putting downward pressure on global prices.
  • Turkey: Balanced inventory, no stockpiling reported.
  • Iran: Moderate carryover, but select grades (like Kashmari Green) see increased demand and firmer prices.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• India: Relatively stable weather in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but localized rain could affect drying processes for late-harvest batches.
• Turkey: No adverse weather reported; growing/harvest conditions remain favorable for high-quality sultana output.
• China: No notable disruptions; summer crop expected to be robust.
• Iran: Hot, dry weather benefits quality; minimal disease risk reported.
• Key Risk: Any unseasonal rainfall in India or unexpected drought in Turkey could rapidly affect availability and quality for the next quarter.

🏭 Global Production & Stock Table

Country	Est. 2024/25 Output (kt)	Stock Trend
Turkey	270	Stable
Iran	120	Low/Mod.
USA (CA)	180	Low
China	200	Ample
India	200	Building Up

📆 Trading Outlook & Actionable Recommendations

• 💡 Buyers: Favor Indian and Chinese grades in the short-term for price-sensitive procurement.
• 📉 Indian Farmers: Seek storage and support as further downside risk remains high until government intervention or import curbs materialize.
• 🔎 Traders: Monitor policy signals closely; sudden restrictions or tariffs could trigger price reversals.
• 🌞 Processors: Lock in quality Turkish and Iranian batches; expect limited price upside only for premium grades.
• ⚠️ Speculators: Volatility likely to persist—expect further downside until supply/demand balances stabilize or policy responses are enacted.

⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Origins)

Origin	Location	Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
India	New Delhi/FOB	1.35 – 1.50	⬇️
China	Netherlands/FCA	2.05 – 2.15	➡️
Turkey	Malatya/FOB	3.55 – 3.70	➡️
Iran	Tehran/FOB	1.60 – 1.75	➡️