Raisins Market Under Pressure: Iranian Supply Boosts Global Availability, Dampens Prices

The global raisins market is witnessing notable shifts as traders in major consuming countries, most recently India, pivot towards Iranian imports following a period of strong reliance on Chinese raisins. Iranian raisins are now offered at similar price points as their Chinese counterparts, creating direct competition and contributing to rising inventories within Indian and other Asian markets. Simultaneously, the arrival of fresh produce, including dry and red dates, has further amplified supply, putting downward pressure on prices that had previously shown firmness.

As both raisins and substitutes become more abundant, buyers can expect stable or slightly softer price trends in the short term—unless new weather or geopolitical disruptions alter the balance. On the supply side, Turkish and Indian prices remain competitive in the FOB market, while marginal price increases are observable in select regions. Market participants are closely watching currency movements, freight dynamics, and the unfolding 2025 crop season, which will be heavily influenced by weather conditions in key producing geographies, particularly Turkey, Iran, and the Indian subcontinent. Looking ahead, the combination of robust supply and controlled demand is set to anchor the market, but volatility remains a risk as players monitor speculative positions and crop development.

📈 Prices: Latest Raisins Market Snapshot

Origin	Type/Grade	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Turkey	Sultanas, type 9, grade a	Malatya	FOB	3.40	0.00	Neutral
Turkey	Sultanas, type 8, grade a	Malatya	FOB	3.25	0.00	Neutral
Turkey	Sultanas, type 10, grade a	Malatya	FOB	3.50	0.00	Neutral
Turkey	Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic	Malatya	FOB	4.00	0.00	Firm
India	Golden, grade aa	New Delhi	FOB	1.95	+0.01	Mildly Bullish
India	Brown, grade aa	New Delhi	FOB	1.49	+0.01	Neutral
India	Black, grade aa	New Delhi	FOB	1.45	+0.01	Stable
China	Sultanas, std, no: 9, grade aa	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.12	+0.02	Neutral
Turkey	Nr. 9, RTU	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.82	+0.02	Neutral
China	Sultanas, type 9, rtu grade STD	Hamburg, DE	FCA	2.11	-0.11	Slightly Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• The shift from Chinese to Iranian raisins in Indian imports is accelerating, triggered by price parity (USD 3–3.6/kg) and rising Iranian availability.
• Steady arrivals from Turkey and India (notably golden and brown grades) keep Europe amply supplied.
• Fresh harvests and market entry of dry/red dates expand alternative snacking options, dampening upward price momentum for raisins.
• Speculative buying has moderated, given higher inventories and minimal currency impact.
• Market participants report subdued demand growth for premium and organic selections, with bulk grades remaining price-sensitive.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• USDA and Crop Status: No major surprises from the latest USDA or Turkish Statistical Institute updates; global production is stable year-on-year. Turkish sultana output forecast is near last season’s levels, while India and Iran have reported slightly higher yields.
• Inventories: European and Asian stocks are healthy, especially after heavy arrivals from recent harvests. Some Indian and Turkish exporters are holding back on offers, anticipating a seasonal uptick.
• Trade Policy & Freight: Logistics are normalized, and currency fluctuations remain subdued—supporting steady trade flows.
• Speculative Positioning: Large importers show cautious spot buying, with forward purchases deferred due to ample stocks and mild near-term demand growth.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Turkey (Aegean & Malatya regions): Mixed forecasts with periodic rainfall and moderate summer temperatures; modest delays possible for late-harvest grades, but no major crop stress reported.
• Iran: Favorable growing conditions with sufficient rainfall; output projected to remain above last season’s average.
• India (Maharashtra & Karnataka): Patchy monsoon in late August but largely positive for quality; minor local disruptions possible if September rains intensify.
• Conclusion: Weather risks are minimal in the near term. Watch for updates on Turkish and Iranian weather patterns into October, as late adverse events could still impact unsold supplies.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (Est. 000 MT)	Y/Y Change	Stocks (Est. 000 MT)
Turkey	310	+1%	85
Iran	170	+4%	45
India	175	+2%	33
China	150	0%	22
USA (CA)	170	-1%	40
Others	200	+2%	55

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Sellers: Advance sales for premium grades may face resistance; consider targeting contract buyers with flexible terms as snack alternatives pressure demand.
• 📈 Buyers: Spot market offers for Iranian and Indian grades are attractive and likely to remain stable. Secure volumes for value blending or bulk requirements.
• ⏳ Holders: Holding excess inventory may carry downside price risk into October as fresh arrivals pressure the market; shorten holding periods where possible.
• 🛡 Importers/Users: Diversify sources and negotiate for price locks on mid-range grades as the global S&D shifts towards mild surplus.
• 🔍 Market Watch: Monitor news on new policies or early October weather risks in Turkey/Iran, which could provide short-lived support for spot prices.

🗓 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Product/Grade	3-Day Price Forecast (EUR/kg)	Trend
Malatya FOB	Sultanas, type 9, grade a	3.38 – 3.42	Stable to Slightly Soft
Malatya FOB	Sultanas, type 10, grade a	3.48 – 3.53	Stable
New Delhi FOB	Golden, grade aa	1.93 – 1.97	Stable
Dordrecht FCA	Chinese Sultanas, grade aa	2.10 – 2.14	Slight Downside