Rapeseed and Soybean Markets Continue Gains Amid Supply Concerns
Market Developments
- Euronext (Rapeseed):
- February futures gained €3.75 on Wednesday, closing at €536.50/t, approaching the two-year high of €543/t from November 18.
- Rapeseed has posted gains in seven of the last nine trading sessions.
- CBoT (Soybeans):
- January soybean futures rose by 4.75 cents to 994.75 cents/bu (€346.25/t, approx. €0.346/kg).
- Soybean meal also saw gains, while soybean oil declined due to weaker palm oil prices.
- ICE (Canola):
- January futures increased by 3 CAD to CAD 621.70/t, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains.
- Gains have moderated compared to previous days as concerns over supply shortages in Canada grow.
Key Market Factors
- Rapeseed and Canola:
- Canadian canola prices continue to rise due to StatsCan’s sharply reduced harvest forecast, fueling supply fears.
- Traders worry that current export and processing rates could deplete stocks before the next harvest.
- Higher prices may reduce demand, benefitting European rapeseed as Canadian imports become more expensive.
- Soybeans:
- The WASDE report offered no new insights:
- U.S. soybean figures remained unchanged compared to November.
- Global production is expected to increase by over 32 million tonnes year-on-year to 427.1 million.
- Global ending stocks are projected at 131.9 million tonnes, up nearly 20 million.
- Argentina’s harvest forecast rose by 1 million tonnes to 52 million tonnes, while Brazil’s remains unchanged at 169 million tonnes.
- The WASDE report offered no new insights:
- Palm Oil:
- On Tuesday, Malaysian palm oil futures dropped by over 3% following MPOB data showing stock, production, and export declines.
- Key Figures for November:
- Stocks fell 2.6% to 1.84 million tonnes.
- Crude palm oil production declined by 9.8% to 1.62 million tonnes, the lowest November level in four years.
- Exports dropped 14.7% to 1.49 million tonnes.
- Analysts’ expectations aligned with the reported MPOB data.
- Focus now shifts to December and January production amid ongoing monsoon rains and flood risks, with forecasts predicting continued heavy rainfall.
Outlook
- Rapeseed and Canola: Prices are expected to remain strong due to supply concerns and higher import costs.
- Soybeans: Global production surpluses may weigh on the market, but Argentina’s upward revision highlights regional differences.
- Palm Oil: Production and export trends will heavily influence prices, especially with looming weather uncertainties.
The global oilseed and vegetable oil markets remain highly dynamic, shaped by regional supply concerns, weather conditions, and fluctuating demand.
