Global Oilseed Market Pressures
The recent speculative surge in rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange has proven unsustainable, as February futures collapsed by 5% since Monday. The rapid rise was not supported by fundamental factors, leading to a sharp correction in the market.
The decline in rapeseed prices coincides with broader weakness in global oilseed markets. In Chicago, soybean and soybean oil prices have dropped by 8%, while Malaysian palm oil has followed a similar downward trajectory. These declines have added pressure to the rapeseed and rapeseed oil markets.
Price Movements on Paris Exchange
- February rapeseed futures fell 3.2% yesterday to USD 0,54/kg, marking a 5% decline for the week and 4.3% for the month.
- May futures dropped even further by 4.7%, settling at USD 0,52/kg a 5.7% decrease for the month.
EU Rapeseed Imports Increase
According to the European Commission, the European Union has imported 2.7 million tonnes of rapeseed in the 2024/25 marketing year as of December 16. This represents a 3% increase compared to the same period last year. Key suppliers include:
- Ukraine: 1.9 million tonnes
- Australia: 500,000 tonnes
- Canada: 100,000 tonnes
The largest importers in the EU were Belgium (918,000 tonnes), the Netherlands (706,000 tonnes), and Germany (527,000 tonnes).
Canadian Canola Futures and Political Statements
On the Winnipeg Exchange, January canola futures fell 4.3% to CAD 588/t (USD 407/t) since Monday, marking a 7.1% drop for the month. The decline coincides with provocative statements from former US President Donald Trump, who suggested that Canada should become the 51st US state to avoid high tariffs on its goods. This political rhetoric has contributed to increased uncertainty in Canadian markets.
Additionally, the Canadian dollar weakened by 3% against the US dollar over the past month, widening the price gap between Canadian canola and European rapeseed to USD 130/t.
Ukrainian Market Impact
In Ukraine, rapeseed purchase prices have followed the global downward trend. Prices have decreased to USD 525-530/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. However, the number of active traders in the Ukrainian market has significantly dwindled, reflecting cautious buying activity amidst volatile global conditions.
Conclusion
The collapse in rapeseed futures highlights the volatility of speculative market movements, especially when disconnected from underlying fundamentals. As global oilseed markets face additional pressures from declining soybean, palm oil, and canola prices, traders remain cautious. The ongoing geopolitical and economic developments could further shape market dynamics in the weeks ahead.
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