Impact of Unfavorable Weather Conditions
Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the Strategie Grains agency has lowered its forecasts for the EU’s oil crop harvest in 2024.
- The projections for rapeseed have been reduced from 17.94 to 17.8 million tons,
- soybeans from 3.04 to 2.99 million tons,
- sunflowers from 10.72 to 10.49 million tons.
Delays in Northwestern Europe
In northwestern Europe, continuous rains are delaying the rapeseed harvest. However, processors still have sufficient stocks of the old crop. Meanwhile, vegetable oil prices are rising amid a strengthening biofuels market and declining US soybean crop potential, which supports canola quotes.
Market Reactions
- On the Paris MATIF, August rapeseed futures rose by 2.1% to €487.5 per ton ($523 per ton), marking a 5.5% increase for the week and nearing the high reached at the end of May.
- Similarly, on the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures increased by 1.8% to CAD 627 per ton ($456 per ton) following gains in Chicago soybean prices, though the rise was tempered by improved prairie weather.
Canadian Export Figures
In the current season, Canada has exported 6 million tons of canola, significantly lower than the previous season’s figure of 7.5 million tons.
Rising Prices in Ukraine
In Ukraine, rapeseed harvesting is just beginning, leading to a rise in purchase prices due to a shortage of supplies. Over the past week;
- export prices for rapeseed delivered to Black Sea ports have increased by UAH 300-500 per ton to UAH 20,300-20,700 per ton ($440-460 per ton),
- at domestic elevators to UAH 18,500-19,800 per ton EXW.
- Demand prices for deliveries to Romania and the Czech Republic have risen by €10 per ton to €440-450 per ton, and to Germany to €450-460 per ton.
Weather Conditions in Ukraine and Russia
Abnormal heat persists in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, key regions for sunflower cultivation. However, the forecasted precipitation in the coming days is expected to reduce air temperatures and alleviate plant stress.
The recent increase in rapeseed futures in Paris highlights the interconnectedness of global agricultural markets. As weather conditions and market dynamics continue to evolve, stakeholders should remain vigilant and adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate the changing landscape effectively.