The rapeseed market has recently experienced notable dynamism, with Euronext rapeseed futures climbing to their highest levels in seven months. This surge, particularly marked in contracts for August 2026, has brought values close to €475 per tonne and prompted serious consideration among producers regarding early forward sales. Contrasting this uptick for new crop, old crop cash prices in Germany slipped modestly, yet a persistent price gap of €30 to €35 per tonne remains between the old and new harvests. Given current miller bids for July/August 2026 at multi-month highs reminiscent of mid-July 2025, strategic partial sales of new crop volumes are increasingly advisable.
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Beyond the European rapeseed sphere, oilseed markets are being shaped by robust U.S. soybean crush demand and volatile oil prices. January U.S. crush hit an all-time record, underpinning soybean prices amid expectations of only modest rises in 2025/26 ending stocks. However, high domestic soyoil prices are weighing down soyoil demand, resulting in stock build-ups and possible headwinds for oilseed complex prices. Against this global backdrop, European rapeseed pricing remains unusually firm, but external volatility signals the need for ongoing vigilance.
📈 Price Overview
| Contract | Last Price (EUR/t) | Change | Volume | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext (MATIF) Aug 26 | 473.00 | 0.00% | 2 | Strong/Bullish |
| Euronext (MATIF) Nov 26 | 476.00 | 0.00% | 1 | Strong/Bullish |
| ICE Canola May 26 | 684.60 (CAD/t) | +0.28% | 37,002 | Moderate/Bullish |
- New crop (Aug 2026) futures near €475/t, matching levels last seen mid-July 2025.
- Spot (old crop) German cash prices slightly weaker; new crop firming.
- Wide €30–35/t spread between old and new crop persists – monitor closely.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- French and broader EU new crop outlook remains supportive, but price levels suggest strong forward demand or tightening supply.
- Oil mills’ high bids for July/August delivery reflect renewables/feed demand and tighter farmer selling.
- US soybean market offers signals: record January crush due to strong meal/oil demand, though soyoil supply surpluses are emerging.
- USDA sees US 2025 soybean acreage up at 85 million ac (+3.8 million y/y), with output estimated at 4.45 bln bushels – broadly in line with expectations.
- International Grains Council reports global soybean stocks up by 2 mln t in Feb vs. Jan (due to lower use and higher output), which may indirectly impact oilseeds sentiment globally.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Context
- Rapeseed futures are outperforming spot market, implying possible supply shortfalls or robust future demand.
- Cash old crop under pressure from weak demand or seasonal destocking; new crop advanced sales look increasingly attractive for growers.
- Bearing in mind soy-derived market linkages, oversupply of soyoil (stocks at April 2023 highs) could limit any fresh price rally unless new demand is identified.
| Country/Region | Latest Price (EUR/t) | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine (Kyiv, FCA) | 0.59 | 2026-02-20 | View Offer |
| Ukraine (Odesa, FCA) | 0.61 | 2026-02-20 | View Offer |
| France (Paris, FOB) | 0.55 | 2026-02-04 | View Offer |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- Western Europe: Recent moderate rainfall has benefitted winter rapeseed stands; outlook for next week signals mild, moist conditions supportive of vegetative growth.
- Ukraine and Russia: Continued dry spells are worth monitoring but no immediate stress reported.
Yield risk currently low, but farmers should keep abreast of regional weather anomalies as spring advances.
🌐 Global Supply & Stocks Comparison
| Metric | 2025/26 (E) | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| World Soybean Stocks (mln t, IGC) | 79 | 77 (Jan) |
| US Soybean Acreage (mln ac, USDA) | 85 | 81.2 (2024) |
| EU Rapeseed Prices (Aug 26) | 473 (EUR/t) | 440–455 (early 2025) |
- Stocks build in soybeans and soyoil in the Americas could weigh on vegetable oil complex, but persistently high MATIF rapeseed prices hint at distinct local tightness.
📆 Strategic Outlook & Trading Recommendations
- Farmers: Consider forward selling partial new crop volumes at current attractive price levels, especially as offers are at 7-month highs.
- Processors/Mills: Monitor farmer selling for new crop, but remain cautious as low old crop availability could drive further bids for prompt delivery.
- Traders: Watch for spread narrowing between old and new crop as marketing advances; be alert to external vegetable oil market volatility driven by the US crush and soyoil stocks.
- All market participants: Monitor weekly USDA reports and global soybean/oilseed stocks for any sign of market fundamentals shifting toward surplus or deficit.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Euronext (MATIF) Aug 2026: €470–€480/t – upward bias if farmer selling remains slow.
- German cash market (new crop): Slightly firmer; expect offers to stay close to futures, premium narrows if demand holds.
- ICE Canola (May 2026): CAD 680–690/t as US futures trade in tandem with oilseed complex, short-term support from firm demand.
