The rapeseed market is entering a period of renewed stability and growth, driven by robust consumer demand, expanding cultivation areas, and a resilient price environment. In 2024, rapeseed oil has maintained its status as the leading edible oil in Germany, with consumption volumes reaching 86 million liters—far outpacing competitors like sunflower and olive oil. This surge in demand is mirrored by a broader uptick in edible oil consumption across the country, signaling a stabilizing market after recent volatility. The expansion of winter rapeseed acreage in Germany (up 2.3% to 1.11 million hectares) and record sowings in Russia (expected to reach 3 million hectares) underscore rapeseed’s growing strategic importance in European and global agriculture. The organic segment is also gaining traction, with organic rapeseed oil accounting for a significant share of Germany’s organic edible oil market. Despite stable prices on key exchanges and some regional differences, the market is closely watching weather developments and geopolitical factors that could impact yields and trade flows. As the 2025 season approaches, rapeseed is poised to play an increasingly central role in both conventional and organic supply chains, with producers and traders navigating a complex landscape of supply, demand, and external influences.
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📈 Prices
| Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Type | Purity | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | Paris | FOB | Rape seeds | – | 0.54 | 0.54 | 2025-05-28 | Stable |
| Ukraine | Kyiv | FCA | 42% min oil | 98% | 0.49 | 0.49 | 2025-05-23 | Stable |
| Ukraine | Odesa | FCA | 42% min oil | 98% | 0.51 | 0.51 | 2025-05-23 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- German Market: Rapeseed oil leads with 86 million liters consumed in 2024, ahead of sunflower (64.1 million liters) and olive oil (36.1 million liters).
- Organic Segment: 4.6 million liters of organic rapeseed oil consumed in Germany (17% of total organic edible oil).
- Total Edible Oil Market: 213.7 million liters in 2024 (up from 199 million in 2023).
- EU Cultivation: 5.8 million hectares allocated to rapeseed; Germany’s winter rapeseed area up 2.3% to 1.11 million ha.
- Russia: Sown area expected at a record 3 million hectares; harvest may exceed 5 million tons.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports: Recent outlooks indicate stable to slightly increasing global rapeseed stocks, with EU and Black Sea region production rising.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains neutral to slightly long, reflecting confidence in stable demand and manageable supply risks.
- Global Inventories: EU and Russian stocks are expected to increase, offsetting smaller crops in Canada and Australia.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Germany & Central Europe: Recent rains have improved soil moisture, supporting crop development. Short-term forecasts suggest mild temperatures and scattered showers, favoring yield potential.
- Ukraine & Russia: Adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures are supporting crop establishment. Some areas in southern Russia may face heat stress, but overall conditions remain favorable for a strong harvest.
- France: Weather remains supportive, with no major threats expected in the next week.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | 2024/25 Area (M ha) | 2024/25 Production (M tons) | 2024/25 Stocks (M tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU (total) | 5.8 | ~19.5* | 4.2* |
| Germany | 1.11 | ~4.2* | 0.7* |
| Russia | 3.0 | 5.0+ | 1.1* |
| Ukraine | 1.25* | 3.5* | 0.5* |
| Canada | 8.7* | 17.3* | 1.0* |
*Estimate based on latest market and USDA data.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Prices remain stable across major origins (France, Ukraine) with no significant weekly changes.
- Strong consumer demand in the EU, especially Germany, underpins a positive price floor.
- Monitor weather developments in Russia and Ukraine for potential yield risks.
- Expect stable-to-firm prices as the harvest approaches, especially if weather remains favorable.
- Organic segment offers premium opportunities in the German market.
- Traders should watch for any geopolitical disruptions or logistical issues in the Black Sea region.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris (FR) | 0.54 | 0.54 – 0.55 | Stable to Slightly Firm |
| Kyiv (UA) | 0.49 | 0.49 – 0.50 | Stable |
| Odesa (UA) | 0.51 | 0.51 – 0.52 | Stable |