Rapeseed Market Dynamics: Price Pressures and Global Trade Shifts

📊 Market Overview: Rapeseed Price Trends and Drivers

Rapeseed prices in Paris have been under significant pressure, currently standing at €469/t, a 1.5% decrease over the past month. This trend is influenced by an anticipated 8% increase in the EU rapeseed harvest and a decline in global oil and biodiesel prices. Favorable weather across EU countries has improved crop conditions, leading to lower prices for the new crop compared to the old harvest.

• Imports to the EU from key suppliers like Ukraine, Australia, and Canada have surged, with total imports reaching 5.68 million tonnes, a 14% increase from the previous year.
• Significant growth in canola imports from Australia and Canada in the latter half of the season has been a response to rising EU prices.
• The adverse weather in Ukraine has negatively impacted the new season’s rapeseed prospects, potentially supporting higher prices.
• Canadian canola prices experienced a sharp decline following tariff announcements by China and the US, yet rebounded strongly due to increased exports.

📈 Price Movements and Market Sentiment

Region	Product	Recent Price	Change
EU	Rapeseed	€469/t	-1.5%
Canada	Canola	CAD 703.9/t	+7.8%

📉 Market Drivers

• Increased EU production forecasts and global price declines for oil and biodiesel are major bearish factors.
• Weather conditions in major producing regions have been favorable, impacting crop yields positively.
• Geopolitical tensions and trade policies, particularly US and China tariffs, have introduced volatility into the market.

⛅ Weather Forecast and Its Impact

The weather in major rapeseed growing areas in the EU remains favorable, which is expected to continue supporting good crop conditions. However, dry weather and frosts in Ukraine could adversely affect the harvest, potentially tightening global supply.

🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days

Given the current market conditions and external influences, prices are expected to show slight fluctuations with a potential for slight increases due to tightening supplies from Ukraine.