Rapeseed Market Shaken by New Ukrainian Export Duties: Short-Term Price Upsurge Expected

The rapeseed market is at an inflexion point as fresh legislative developments in Ukraine look set to disrupt regional and global trade flows. On July 16, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved Bill No. 13157, introducing a 10% export duty on rapeseed (and soybeans), effective from the first day of the month following enactment. Ukraine is a critical supplier of rapeseed to European processors, and this measure—passed despite opposition from agrarian committees and farmers’ associations—immediately reverberated across prices and sentiment. In the wake of this news, prices for Ukrainian-origin rapeseed offered FCA Kyiv and Odesa surged by €0.01 per kg each, now standing at €0.55 and €0.56, respectively. French FOB Paris prices remained unchanged at €0.55, but arbiters are watching the spread closely, given Ukraine’s weight in both Eastern EU and world rapeseed markets.

The fresh duty will impact farmer returns, force trading and logistics recalibrations, and might divert more seed into domestic crushing or to alternative export routes. Market observers are split on the medium-term impact: while an initial supply squeeze is likely to support prices, there is still uncertainty about the law’s implementation and potential retaliatory moves from trading partners. On top of this, growing season weather across the Black Sea and Western Europe stays mostly favourable, but a heatwave alert in Central Europe could add weather premium risk inthe coming weeks. With fundamental drivers pulling in several directions, rapeseed traders face a turbulent summer.

📈 Prices & Global Benchmarks

Origin	Exchange/Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Ukraine (UA)	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.55	+0.01	2025-07-11	Bullish after the duty announcement
Ukraine (UA)	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.56	+0.01	2025-07-11	Bullish after the duty announcement
France (FR)	Paris (FOB)	FOB	0.55	0.00	2025-07-04	Neutral, watchful

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• New 10% Ukrainian export duty: Raises rapeseed export pricing, could deter outflows in the short term.
• Opposition by market bodies: Ukraine’s agri-policy committee and farmer associations warn of reduced farmer profitability and possible supply bottlenecks.
• EU import dependency: Europe, reliant on Ukrainian rapeseed, may seek alternative sources or face higher raw input costs.
• Current inventories: Global stocks remain tight after last season’s below-average production in Canada and drought shocks in Australia and Eastern Europe.
• Speculative positioning: Managed money has begun building long exposure in Euronext rapeseed futures in anticipation of supply restrictions.

📊 Fundamental Data Update

• Ukraine: 2024/25 rapeseed production forecast at 4.2–4.5 mln tonnes (USDA/market consensus), with up to 70% traditionally exported.
• EU-27: Production of 18.7 mln tonnes forecast for 2024/25 (EU Commission).
• Canada: Canola (rapeseed) harvest expected at 18.2 mln tonnes (AAFC), below 5-year average—drought risks remain present.
• China/India: Robust import demand expected to continue, with China’s oilseed deficit widening due to crop disease issues.
• Global stocks-to-use ratio: Sits at 9.2%, implying tightness but slightly improved from 2023.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Ukraine: Moderate temperatures and timely rainfall bode well for yield potential; early harvest reports are optimistic.
• Central & Western Europe: A developing heatwave (esp. Germany, Poland) could stress late-maturing fields, but the window for significant crop losses is narrowing as harvest nears.
• Canada: Drought stress persists in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta; upside price risk remains if conditions worsen.
• Australia: Plantings ongoing under mixed conditions (rain in East, drier West); too early to adjust output forecasts.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (mln tonnes)	2024/25 Exports (mln tonnes)	Stock-to-Use (%)
Ukraine	4.4	3.1	13.0
EU-27	18.7	2.2	8.7
Canada	18.2	10.9	6.5
Australia	7.5	5.2	10.4

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish price bias in the near term for Black Sea/EU rapeseed, as export duty curtails Ukrainian shipments and shifts Eastern European flows.
• Processors & crushers: Seek to cover Q3–Q4 requirements early; basis premiums are likely to widen in affected ports.
• Traders: Monitor the legal implementation date of new duties; volatility will persist until the market finds equilibrium.
• Risk managers: Watch speculative positioning on Euronext and CBT canola—amplified benchmarks may overreact in low liquidity periods.
• Importers: Explore diversifying origins (Canada/Australia), but premium prices expected on spot.

📉 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Expected Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Kyiv (UA)	0.55	0.54 – 0.57	Bullish, high volatility
Odesa (UA)	0.56	0.55 – 0.58	Bullish, high volatility
Paris (FR, FOB)	0.55	0.54 – 0.56	Steady, watching Black Sea impact