The rapeseed market has entered a phase of notable stability, with futures at the Euronext (MATIF) trading in a narrow range and spot prices showing little movement. The front-month August contract finished unchanged at 488.50 EUR/t, reflecting a broader sideways trend in the absence of fresh impetus from the Chicago Board of Trade, which was closed for a holiday. Recent diplomatic developments, including a temporary suspension of planned US import tariffs on EU goods and a pause on potential EU countermeasures against US soybeans, have yet to impact rapeseed prices.
Meanwhile, the European Commission’s MARS service has trimmed its yield outlook for the EU slightly, citing worsening drought conditions in key regions such as northern Germany. The latest market sentiment indicates caution, with traders closely monitoring both weather developments and the evolving trade landscape. Despite these challenges, current yield forecasts remain above last year’s levels, providing some reassurance to market participants. Internationally, Canadian canola futures saw minimal movement in thin trading, with modest gains across contracts.
Physical prices for Ukrainian and French rapeseed have remained steady, underlining the market’s current equilibrium. Overall, the rapeseed market is poised between weather-driven supply risks and the possibility of renewed volatility from trade policy shifts, making the coming weeks critical for price direction.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange | Contract | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext (MATIF) | Aug 25 | 488.50 EUR/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| Euronext (MATIF) | Nov 25 | 490.25 EUR/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| ICE Canada | Jul 25 | 732.20 CAD/t | +1.87% | Slightly Bullish |
| ICE Canada | Nov 25 | 694.30 CAD/t | +0.91% | Neutral |
| Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price | Previous Price | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Kyiv (FCA) | FCA | 0.49 USD/kg | 0.49 USD/kg | 2025-05-23 |
| Ukraine | Odesa (FCA) | FCA | 0.51 USD/kg | 0.51 USD/kg | 2025-05-23 |
| France | Paris (FOB) | FOB | 0.54 USD/kg | 0.54 USD/kg | 2025-05-22 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- EU Rapeseed Yield (MARS): 3.17 t/ha (down from 3.20 t/ha in April; 5-year avg: 3.16 t/ha).
- Germany: Yield now seen at 3.60 t/ha (April: 3.67 t/ha; last year: 3.34 t/ha).
- Global Inventories: Remain comfortable, but weather risks in Europe could tighten supply.
- Trade Policy: Suspension of US-EU tariff escalation reduces immediate trade risk, but uncertainty remains if talks fail by July 9.
- Speculative Positioning: Neutral to slightly bullish as traders await new weather and trade signals.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production: EU production outlook slightly lower, but still above last year and 5-year average.
- Stocks: Canadian canola stocks are adequate; EU stocks could tighten if drought persists.
- Demand: Steady crush demand in EU; biodiesel sector remains a key driver.
- External Factors: Weather, trade negotiations, and currency movements are the main watchpoints.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Germany: Worsening rainfall deficit, especially in the north, with only one-third of the typical precipitation. Soil moisture is critical in many areas.
- France & Eastern Europe: Mixed conditions; some regions face moderate dryness, but no major crop stress reported yet.
- Forecast: Below-average rainfall is expected for most of Germany in the coming week, increasing yield risk if conditions persist.
- Canada: Canola regions report adequate moisture, but early summer heat could become a concern.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2025 Production (est.) | 2024 Production | 2025 Stocks (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU | 19.2 Mt | 19.5 Mt | 2.3 Mt |
| Canada | 18.1 Mt | 17.8 Mt | 2.4 Mt |
| Ukraine | 4.0 Mt | 4.2 Mt | 0.4 Mt |
| Australia | 5.8 Mt | 6.2 Mt | 0.6 Mt |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor EU weather closely; prolonged dryness could trigger price spikes.
- Watch for developments in US-EU trade talks before July 9—failure could reintroduce tariff volatility.
- Physical market participants: Consider forward coverage if drought persists in Northern Europe.
- Speculators: Neutral bias, but stay alert for weather-driven momentum shifts.
- Importers: Current prices offer stability; consider staggered purchases to hedge against weather risk.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Euronext (MATIF) Aug 25: 487–490 EUR/t (sideways, weather risk premium possible)
- ICE Canada Jul 25: 730–735 CAD/t (stable, watching weather and trade)
- Ukraine FCA: 0.49–0.52 USD/kg (steady, export flows normal)
- France FOB: 0.54–0.56 USD/kg (steady, slight upside if EU drought intensifies)
