Rapeseed Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Concerns and Lower French Planting Estimates

Rapeseed prices on the Euronext surged on Tuesday, with the May contract rising by €6.50 to €523 per ton. A bullish outlook for vegetable oils, lower French planting estimates, and declining global soybean stocks are supporting the market. Meanwhile, the latest USDA WASDE report and export inspection data reveal key insights into global oilseed trends.

Euronext Rapeseed Prices

The rapeseed market recorded strong gains on Tuesday:

• May contract: +€6.50, closing at €523 per ton
• August contract: +€4.25, closing at €494.25 per ton

Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) Trends

• Soybeans: The March contract declined by 6 cents, settling at 1,043.5 cents per bushel (38.23 kg).
• Soybean meal: Prices weakened.
• Soybean oil: Closed higher, providing support to vegetable oil markets.

Market Drivers and Key Reports

USDA WASDE Report – Lower Global Soybean Stocks

The latest USDA WASDE report delivered unexpected adjustments:

• Global soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 were cut by 3 million tons to 124.3 million tons.
• Argentina’s production estimate was lowered by 3 million tons to 49 million tons due to dry conditions.
• Brazil’s harvest estimate remained unchanged at 169 million tons.
• Global soybean production now stands at 420.76 million tons, down from 424.26 million tons in January.

Despite this reduction, global stocks are still expected to increase by 12 million tons compared to the previous year.

🔜 Brazil’s CONAB will release a new soybean harvest estimate tomorrow. The January forecast was 166.33 million tons, though some analysts predict figures above 170 million tons.

Rapeseed and Canola Market Insights

Lower French Rapeseed Planting Supports Prices

Rapeseed and Canadian canola prices were lifted by rising vegetable oil prices and lower planting estimates in France:

• France’s rapeseed area estimate was cut from 1.34 million hectares to 1.27 million hectares, a 4.1% drop from last year.
• However, this remains 6.2% above the five-year average.

Canadian Canola Prices (ICE)

• The March contract on ICE rose by CAD 5.00 to CAD 661.80 per ton, its highest level since November 12.
• The bullish sentiment continues due to lower-than-expected Canadian supply levels, as StatsCan recently reported reduced stockpiles.

USDA Export Inspections Report – Soybean Shipments Decline

The USDA’s latest export inspection report for the week ending February 6 showed:

• 1.104 million tons of soybeans shipped, down 3.2% from last week and 18% lower than the same week last year.
• Top destinations:
  • 🇨🇳 China: 554,661 tons
  • 🇪🇬 Egypt: 159,855 tons
  • 🇩🇪 Germany: 68,656 tons

Export Breakdown by Region

➡ Full report available via USDA.

Weather Conditions in Key Growing Regions

Argentina

• Recent rainfall is expected to alleviate drought conditions, improving soybean crop stability.
• Pampas region: Wetter conditions may boost soil moisture levels, benefiting late-season crops.

Brazil

• Soybean harvest delays continue, with only 15% of planted areas harvested, compared to 23% last year.
• Mato Grosso: Heavy rains impacting fieldwork, delaying second-crop corn planting.

🌦 Forecast for this week: More rain is expected, which could further disrupt harvesting activities.

Palm Oil & Global Vegetable Oil Trends

• The Malaysian palm oil market was closed on Tuesday due to a holiday.
• Palm oil prices are rising this morning, driven by:
  • Higher soybean oil prices in Chicago
  • A strong Chinese market in Dalian
• Malaysia’s palm oil inventories fell to a 21-month low, increasing bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil sector.

Outlook

🔹 Soybean traders await Brazil’s CONAB forecast tomorrow, which could impact market direction.
🔹 Rapeseed prices remain supported by higher vegetable oil prices and reduced French planting.
🔹 Weather in South America remains a key factor, particularly in Argentina and Brazil.

📢 Stay tuned for further market updates tomorrow!

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