📉 Rapeseed Rally Stalls – Soybeans Weaken Despite USDA Reports, Canola Steadies
📍 The rapeseed market paused its recent rally on Monday, ending a streak of nine consecutive sessions of gains. Soybeans also edged lower in Chicago after the USDA’s latest acreage and stock reports delivered no major surprises. Meanwhile, canola futures showed mixed signals, and traders brace for fresh direction from U.S. processing data and ongoing trade negotiations.
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📊 1. Market Overview – Futures & Developments
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (ct/bu) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,014.75 | €343 | -8.25 | -0.81% |
| July 2025 | 1,028.00 | €348 | -8.00 | -0.77% |
| Nov 2025 | 1,040.50 | €352 | -7.75 | -0.74% |
📉 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures (31.03.2025)
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 516.75 | -8.75 | -1.66% |
| Aug 2025 | 485.25 | -6.25 | -1.27% |
| Nov 2025 | 486.75 | -5.50 | -1.12% |
📈 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures (31.03.2025)
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (CAD/t) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📈 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 612.50 | €389 | -0.90 | -0.15% |
| Jul 2025 | 618.90 | €393 | +0.60 | +0.10% |
| Nov 2025 | 618.00 | €392 | +5.80 | +0.94% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Analysis
📉 Rapeseed Consolidates After 9-Day Rally
- The rally lost steam as the May contract dropped €8.75, snapping nine straight sessions of gains.
- New crop months also softened, though losses were modest.
- Technical correction, a firm euro, and cautious sentiment weighed on prices.
📉 USDA Reports Neutral for Soybeans
- The USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report estimated 2025 soybean acreage at 83.5 million acres, down 4% y/y and just under expectations.
- Grain stocks as of March 1 totalled 1.91 billion bushels, a 3-year high and slightly above consensus.
- Market reaction: muted to negative, lacking bullish surprise.
📈 Canola Steady Amid Policy Uncertainty
- Old crop held firm, but new crop months gained ground as traders speculated on a resolution—or escalation—of trade tensions.
- Canola continues to track oilseed sentiment and CAD fluctuations closely.
🚢 U.S. Soybean Exports Remain Strong
- USDA export inspections (week ending March 27): 793,250 t shipped, with China accounting for 78.4% of the total.
- Cumulative exports are now at 40.73 MMT, up +9.8% y/y.
🔍 USDA Monthly Crush Report (Due Today)
- Analysts forecast 189 million bushels processed in February, down from 213 million in January and 194 million last February.
🔮 3. 3-Day Price Forecast
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Technical consolidation likely after an extended rally.
- Resistance: €525/t
- Support: €505/t
- Expected Range: €508 – €520/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Neutral to weak as bullish momentum fades.
- Resistance: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support: 995 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 4. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans (Long-Term Outlook)
| Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 |
🔍 5. Summary & Outlook
📉 Key Insights:
- Rapeseed faces a natural correction after a strong upward run.
- Soybean sentiment is cautious, shaped by high inventories and neutral planting intentions.
- Canola remains directionless, with trade headlines determining the next move.
🔮 This week will be driven by U.S. crush data, trade signals, and further positioning ahead of spring planting season. Watch for any policy developments out of Washington or Ottawa.