What is with the prices and demand for rapeseed this year?
At the end of May 2024, demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed on a CIF Constanta basis were already 8% above the peak in summer 2023. But already during the first week of June, prices lost about 23 EUR/t against the background of pressure from Canadian canola.
If we look at MATIF, from February to the beginning of April 2024, the price on this basis increased from 379 EUR/t to 411 EUR/t. Then in April appeared information about early flowering of rapeseed in Ukraine. In May, the problems with the fields freezing appeared. During this period (beginning of April – end of May), the demand prices CIF Constanta in terms of MATIF jumped from 426 to 458 EUR/t. This is 32 EUR/t or 8% higher than last summer peak.
What do we have now?
In the first week of June, the purchasing price for rapeseeds CIF Constanta fell by 23 EUR/t per week due to pressure from Canadian canola.
Buyers are interested in signing contracts linked to the MATIF exchange. Especially against the background of the news that many rape crops in Ukraine were damaged due to local frosts in May.
Only sellers are in no hurry.
Lessons from the past year for Ukrainian agrarians
In 2024 season, sellers are quite cautious entering the rapeseeds market. They had a bitter experience last year, when they concluded forward contracts for rapeseed, and at the time of their execution, prices jumped.
The market is used to the fact that Ukrainian rapeseed is an export-oriented oilseed. But in fact the Ukrainians processed rapeseeds for more than four months, not two months, as usual. Also, the number of factories involved in processing increased from about five to more than ten. Due to this, domestic rapeseed prices jumped. So with this experience, sellers now hold their sales.
Of course, farmers are starting harvesting now and they have to think about selling a certain number of lots linked to the MATIF exchange. But there are still few such proposals. The purchasing prices shown by multinational companies are not very interesting to sellers yet.