Rapeseeds Market: Flat Prices Amid Surging Oilseed Supply and Brighter Weather Outlooks

The rapeseeds market currently stands at a pivotal juncture, with pricing on major exchanges reflecting broad stability amidst a flood of new fundamental developments across the global oilseed complex. Despite no significant day-to-day price movements on the MATIF Euronext for all major contracts, the market is far from static: surging US soybean processing, robust South American exports, and improving weather conditions in key producing regions are reshaping both supply chains and price expectations.

Notably, MATIF rapeseed contracts for delivery through late 2027 have posted unchanged closing levels, signaling a market awaiting fresh impetus. This flatness emerges against a backdrop of record January US soybean crush volumes and a continued logistical push in Brazil, where export volumes for soybeans remain well above previous years. These cross-commodity dynamics exert significant influence, given the rapeseed market’s close linkages with the wider oilseed sector. Meanwhile, upcoming USDA plantings estimates are about to inject further clarity on medium-term North American oilseed supply.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Previous Day	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	May 2026	€487.50/t	€487.50/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	August 2026	€466.75/t	€466.75/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	November 2026	€469.50/t	€469.50/t	0.00%	Neutral
ICE Canada (Canola)	May 2026	CAD 682.70/t	CAD 674.80/t	+1.16%	Bullish
ICE Canada (Canola)	July 2026	CAD 693.50/t	CAD 685.40/t	+1.17%	Bullish

Supplementary Spot and Offer Prices

Origin	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date
Odesa, UA	FCA	€0.61	2026-02-13
Kyiv, UA	FCA	€0.59	2026-02-13
Paris, FR	FOB	€0.55	2026-02-04

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Soy Processing: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported US soybean crush at 221.564 million bushels for January, up 10.6% year over year. This record output underpins robust domestic demand for soymeal, yet also builds large soyoil stocks—dampening the broader oilseed complex including rapeseed.
• South American Exports: Brazil’s soybean exports for February are forecasted at 11.46 million tonnes, approximately 5 million tonnes above the prior year. This record volume enhances global supply and competitive pressure, especially against US and European products.
• US Planting Intentions: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its 2026 planting forecasts imminently. Early consensus points to 84.9 million acres for soybeans, a significant increase from the previous year, signaling further supply growth and adding bearish undertones to oilseed pricing.

📊 Fundamentals

• Stable European Rapeseed Prices: All Euronext MATIF futures contracts through August 2028 closed unchanged, reflecting a temporary balance between supply and demand.
• Canola Strength in Canada: ICE canola prices have risen week-on-week, with nearby contracts gaining over 1%, a bullish indicator from overseas markets.
• Oilseed Complex Influence: High US soy oil inventories combined with increasing overall oilseed availability globally exert downward or at best capping pressure on European rapeseed values.
• Physical Market Offers: Ukrainian and French rapeseed offers remain stable to slightly firmer, with Ukraine at €0.59–€0.61/kg FCA and France at €0.55/kg FOB, consistent with a lack of urgent supply-side or demand-side pressure.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• South America: Harvest weather is favorable—expected dry in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay in March, accelerating maize and soybean gathering and ensuring ample export readiness.
• Central Brazil: Minor wetness poses only limited risk to second-crop maize planting. Overall, weather risks for oilseeds are historically low at this juncture, indicating rapid progress and high global supply potential.
• Europe: While not specifically highlighted this week, continued mild conditions seen in core EU cropping regions support normal overwintering and a benign outlook for 2026 spring development.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• Europe: No immediate disruptions, with stable stock/use expectations given lack of pricing volatility and no notable demand shocks or supply interruptions cited in the latest data.
• North America: Projected increase in planted soybean acreage suggests a strong baseline for potential oilseed oversupply.
• South America: Brazil maintains powerful export momentum, expected to set or approach new volume records in coming months if weather cooperates as forecasted.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Be prepared for sideways movement in MATIF rapeseed futures given present supply equilibrium and absence of major fresh price triggers.
• Monitor USDA planting reports and South American export flows—either could quickly shift sentiment or break the current stalemate.
• Watch for continued strength in ICE canola as a potential leading indicator for rapeseed, but be wary of global oilseed overhang from both North and South America.
• Consider physical offers in Ukraine/France as a floor for further price downside in the short term; these remain resilient despite headwinds.
• Weather watch: Only a material adverse shift in South America or spring issues in Europe would break the current neutral-to-bearish trend.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Direction	Comment
Euronext (MATIF)	May/Nov 2026	↔️	Stable; no major driver for upward or downward moves expected via Friday.
ICE Canada (Canola)	May/Jul 2026	➡️/↑	Canola strength to persist but capped by global oilseed stocks.
Physical Market	UA/FR spot	↔️	Offers firm; physical downside risk limited, upside unlikely short-term.