The red chilli market is displaying robust resilience, with prices holding firm despite recent high valuations. This sustained firmness is attributed to a confluence of steady domestic and export demand, moderate arrivals at primary trading hubs such as Guntur, and limited inventories supporting a bullish market sentiment. The benchmark 334-grade red chilli remains stable, and recent wholesale price increases—by approximately 500 units—underscore active bulk buying by spice processors and traders.
Specialty grades like bird’s eye and powder have seen minor but consistent gains in key Indian markets. Notably, with the festive season underway and new crop arrivals only expected in a few weeks, upward price pressures are likely to persist in the near term. Historical data from prior chilli market updates mirrors the current environment: high demand amid constrained supply driving firmness, with the added layer of festive demand this month intensifying bullish sentiment. Should arrivals increase later, some correction is possible; however, for now, all signals point to another strong week for chilli prices.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.67 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.38 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Grade / Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Weekly Change | Latest Update | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird Eye, Grade A, Organic | IN | New Delhi | 4.67 | +0.02 | 2025-10-03 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Powder, Grade A, Organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.42 | +0.02 | 2025-10-03 | Firm |
| Chilli dried | Flakes, Grade A, Organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.38 | +0.02 | 2025-10-03 | Firm |
| Chilli dried | With stem | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.17 | +0.02 | 2025-10-03 | Firm |
| Chilli dried whole | Stemless, Grade A | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.20 | +0.01 | 2025-10-03 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Arrivals in Guntur and other key centres remain moderate, preventing price declines. While supply is not constricted, it is sufficiently limited to uphold current levels, especially with prior low closing stocks.
- Demand: Both domestic and export buyers are actively sourcing, bolstered by pre-festive and ongoing festive requirements. Bulk processors are replenishing stocks, further intensifying upward pressure.
- Market Sentiment: Bullish—short-term prospects are underpinned by tight stocks and active buying despite higher prices.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Inventories: Limited at both farm and processor levels after substantial drawdowns in previous months;
- Arrival Patterns: Moderate to low, with bulk of new crop arrivals expected in a few weeks, further supporting current price strength;
- Seasonal Demand: Festive season in India is driving increased spot market and forward purchasing activity;
- Export Dynamics: Steady international demand, with reports of consistent shipments to main buyers;
- Speculative Positioning: Bullish, as traders and processors anticipate further firmness prior to crop arrivals;
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka: Current reports indicate mild rainfall and overall favorable growing weather, with no major disruptions expected. This continues to support overall crop health but may slightly delay harvesting in select areas.
- Guntur region: Weather remains normal, with temperatures within seasonal averages, supporting quality but potentially leading to a marginal delay in arrivals if unseasonal rains materialize in the next 10 days.
In conclusion, current weather poses no imminent threat to yields; however, next week’s outlook should be watched closely as untimely precipitation could impact harvest and arrivals.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
- Major Exporters (India, China, Vietnam): India dominates global trade, but ending stocks are reported lower year-on-year. China’s crop is steady, while Vietnam faces supply issues following adverse weather events earlier in the season.
- Key Importers (USA, Europe, Middle East): Strong import demand from traditional buyers; recent European demand has increased slightly due to holiday season requirements and falling inventories in local warehouses.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-Term: Maintain bullish bias; watch for higher prices as buying intensifies ahead of crop arrivals.
- Medium-Term: Be alert to possible correction if arrivals increase as projected later in the month.
- Procurement: Buyers may consider forward booking to secure required quantities amidst ongoing firmness.
- Speculators: Bullish opportunities persist but should be regularly reassessed against arrival pace and fresh weather updates.
- Sellers: Take advantage of firm prices for prompt shipments, especially for spot and near-term contracts.
📅 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB India)
| Date | Whole (Bird Eye, EUR/kg) | Powder (Grade A, EUR/kg) | Flakes (Grade A, EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | 4.67–4.70 | 4.42–4.44 | 4.38–4.40 |
| 2025-10-05 | 4.68–4.72 | 4.43–4.46 | 4.39–4.41 |
| 2025-10-06 | 4.69–4.72 | 4.44–4.47 | 4.40–4.42 |
Prices are expected to remain firm with minor upward bias. Monitor arrivals and weather closely as potential catalysts for higher volatility.
