The global red chilli market has carried its bullish momentum well into 2024, with India reinforcing its status as the world’s primary producer and exporter. A perfect storm of robust domestic consumption, resurgent export demand—particularly from China, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka—and tightening market supplies have sustained high price levels across major trading hubs. Arrivals into major mandis, especially India’s Guntur, remain well below typical seasonal averages, underpinning strong price action in both medium and premium quality chillies.
This tightness in supply is exacerbated by lower carry-forward stocks and an aggressive export pace, with India’s overseas sales already surpassing previous-year totals by a considerable margin. The upward shift in prices shows little sign of abating, with both domestic and international buyers competing for limited, top-grade lots. Looking ahead, the combination of continued firmness in demand, weather-related risks to production, and the prospect of peak festive season buying points to additional upside—even as consumer markets in northern India stabilize on strong underlying demand. As the market awaits the new crop, premium segments are especially buoyant, and speculative positioning looks set to reinforce bullish sentiment.
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FOB 4.41 €/kg
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📈 Price Review
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, Grade A (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | 4.75 | 4.75 | 0.00 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Powder, Grade A (Organic) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.49 | 4.49 | 0.00 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Flakes, Grade A (Organic) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.46 | 4.46 | 0.00 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | With stem (Conventional) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.25 | 2.25 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Chilli dried | Whole, stemless, Grade A (Conventional) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.28 | 2.28 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Exports: India exported over 212,000 tons of red chilli this season (vs. 165,175 tons last year); exports account for ~41% of expected 2024–25 output.
- Domestic Demand: Remains strong, particularly for premium Teja and Sannam varieties; southern India trades high grade, while north dominates in medium/low quality.
- Arrivals: Daily mandi inflows (27,000–28,000 bags) remain below historical averages, further reducing spot availability.
- Stocks: Cold storage and carry-forward inventories continue tightening, especially for premium lots.
- Consumer Trends: Retail and wholesale markets, notably in Guntur, show ongoing firm bids on both quality and volume.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Comparison
| Year | Production (tons) | Exports (tons) | Export % of Output | Avg. Spot Teja Price (USD/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023–24 | 355,000 | 165,175 | ~46% | ~1980 |
| 2024–25 | 360,000 | 212,000+ | ~59% | 2040–2100 |
Key Insights:
- Export share of output is rising sharply, intensifying supply-side pressure domestically.
- Premium quality red chilli is scarce; prices have seen an increase of $0.60–0.72/kg year-to-date.
- Guntur remains the global benchmark for spot trades in chillies.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh/Telangana: Monsoon rains arrived on time but have been erratic in key growing belts. Short dry spells followed by heavy showers may impact fruit setting and quality of crop due to anticipated disease pressure.
- North India (UP, Bihar, Rajasthan): Intermittent dry and hot weather, with limited rain events, is helping boost crop health in late-planted fields but may constrain yields unless soil moisture improves.
- Forecast: No extreme events seen over next 10 days, but overall precipitation levels remain below multi-year average for several tracts—potential minor tightening of fresh arrivals.
Summary: Near-term supply risk remains if current weather pattern persists, particularly for late maturing/picked lots.
🌐 Global Supply Snapshot
| Country | Est. 2024–25 Production (tons) | Export Volume (tons) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 360,000 | 212,000+ |
| China | 110,000 | 60,000 |
| Bangladesh | 62,000 | 10,000 |
| Sri Lanka | 23,500 | 2,700 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish undertone expected to persist through new crop arrival window (Sept–Oct).
- Exporters: Lock forward contracts now to secure supply and hedge against further price appreciation.
- Importers: Maintain elevated coverage; consider incremental purchases if inventories allow.
- Wholesalers: Premium quality expected to command stronger differentials—prioritize allocation.
- Speculators: Watch for potential short-term surge if arrivals continue to lag and festival demand materializes.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | Expected Range (Next 3 days, USD/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Guntur (Teja/Spot) | 4.02 | 4.00–4.10 |
| Andhra Pradesh (FOB Powder/Flakes) | 4.46–4.49 | 4.46–4.55 |
| New Delhi (Bird Eye/FOB) | 4.75 | 4.75–4.82 |
Note: Near-term risk skewed toward further gains if mandi arrivals remain below average.