The red chili market has witnessed a significant upturn as tightened arrivals coincide with ongoing festive demand interruptions. This week, main trading centers observed a sharp drop in arrivals, which provided upward momentum to prices despite a temporarily subdued demand from Northern India due to the Navratri festival. The benchmark 334 No. variety traded higher, ranging between USD 186–192 per quintal, an increase of USD 2–4 over the previous session. This signals that even with seasonal demand dips, supply-side constraints are powerful enough to keep the market on a bullish trajectory.
Compared to last week’s levels near USD 192–195, the market is regaining momentum, and sentiment among traders has turned cautiously optimistic for continued firmness if arrivals remain below normal in the days ahead. With ongoing weather uncertainties in Southern India, particularly Andhra Pradesh—the heart of India’s chili production—the market outlook stays firmly focused on weather developments, farmer selling patterns, and the strength of post-festival buying. Near-term volatility cannot be ruled out, but the fundamental landscape increasingly favors sellers, especially for high-grade and organic lots.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.65 €/kg
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Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.40 €/kg
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Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.36 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices at a Glance
| Product | Type & Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, grade A New Delhi, IN |
4.65 | 4.68 | -0.03 | Stable/Firm |
| Chilli dried powder | Grade A Andhra Pradesh, IN |
4.40 | 4.42 | -0.02 | Stable/Firm |
| Chilli dried flakes | Grade A Andhra Pradesh, IN |
4.36 | 4.39 | -0.03 | Stable/Firm |
| Chilli dried with stem | Non-organic Andhra Pradesh, IN |
2.15 | 2.18 | -0.03 | Stable |
| Chilli dried whole, stemless | Grade A, Non-organic Andhra Pradesh, IN |
2.19 | 2.21 | -0.02 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals: Sharply reduced across major mandis, mainly due to lower farmer selling post-harvest and logistical hold-ups.
- Festival Demand: Navratri has temporarily softened buying in northern regions but expected to rebound post-festival.
- Inventories: Processors and traders are maintaining low stocks, anticipating further price firming if arrivals remain below average.
- Global Influence: Competitive Indian prices keep interest from Asian and Middle Eastern buyers active despite modest global supply.
- Speculation: Some speculative buying reported as traders bet on further tightness post-festival.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- USDA, Government Reports: Domestic chilli production forecast down approx. 6% YoY on erratic rains in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
- Crop Acreage: Slightly below normal this year; farmers reluctant to increase acreage after prior season’s oversupply.
- Global Stocks: Indian stocks tighter than average; China and Mexico stable but not in a position to offset Indian shortfall.
- Export Situation: Exports remain competitive but face slower new orders as buyers await post-festival pricing clarity.
⛅️ Weather Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh (AP): Scattered rainfall and high humidity expected over next 3-4 days could slow further drying and arrivals.
- Karnataka & Telangana: Mixed weather, with dry spells generally supporting late harvesting but risk of isolated showers persists.
- Implications: Delays in arrivals likely if wet weather continues, supporting a bullish price environment through week’s end.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023 Production (kt) | 2024F Production (kt) | Stocks Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,670 | 1,570 | Tight |
| China | 670 | 680 | Stable |
| Mexico | 146 | 150 | Stable |
| Bangladesh | 110 | 115 | Lower |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price outlook is firm to bullish on tight arrivals and ongoing weather risk.
- Expect price volatility leading into and out of the festival as buyers re-enter the market.
- Downside risk limited in the near term unless arrivals rapidly improve or demand weakens unexpectedly post-Navratri.
- Exporters should consider scaling offers to capture further upside if arrivals lag.
- Buyers are advised to cover near-term needs; consider phased buying given uncertainty in growing areas.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Markets)
| Market | Current Price (INR/qtl) | Expected Range (INR/qtl) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guntur | 16,100 | 16,000–16,400 | Bullish/Firm |
| Khammam | 15,650 | 15,600–15,950 | Bullish |
| Warangal | 15,200 | 15,100–15,500 | Bullish |
