The red chilli market continues to capture attention as tight supplies and robust domestic consumption combine to underpin steadily rising prices. Across major producing regions in India, arrivals have shrunk dramatically post-harvest, with farmers having sold much of their produce and mandis now reporting daily volumes at just a fraction of seasonal peaks. As a result, spot prices are advancing by $4.80–$6.00 per 100 kg across a variety of grades, and upward pressure is visible not just in wholesale transactions but filtering through to retail markets as well. Key mandis such as Guntur, Warangal, and Khammam are buzzing with active domestic buying, supporting a pattern of modest but consistent price gains. While global export demand is moderate, interest from Southeast Asia and the Middle East shows signs of further improvement ahead of the festival season.
Weather conditions remain favorable in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka, yet the sharp decline in fresh arrivals (only 500–1,000 bags per day versus 14,000–15,000 during peak) adds to the market’s bullish tone. Given these supply-side constraints alongside steady consumption from the spice industry and festive buyers, market participants widely expect firmness to persist, with potential for further upward movement if arrivals remain limited.
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Chilli dried whole
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flakes, grade a
FOB 4.41 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Trends
| Market | Quality | Price Range (USD/100kg) | Latest Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guntur | Average | $12.00 – $18.00 | Firm |
| Khammam | Medium | $6.00 – $12.00 | Steady |
| Warangal | Top | $16.80 – $21.00 | Stable/Firm |
🔖 Latest Export Prices (FOB India, 23 Aug 2025)
| Product | Type | Organic | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, Grade A | Yes | New Delhi | 4.70 | 4.75 | -0.05 |
| Chilli powder | Grade A | Yes | Andhra Pradesh | 4.44 | 4.49 | -0.05 |
| Chilli flakes | Grade A | Yes | Andhra Pradesh | 4.41 | 4.46 | -0.05 |
| Chilli dried | With stem | No | Andhra Pradesh | 2.20 | 2.25 | -0.05 |
| Chilli dried whole | Stemless, Grade A | No | Andhra Pradesh | 2.23 | 2.28 | -0.05 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals: Major chill-growing states see arrivals collapse to 500–1,000 bags/day post-peak (14,000–15,000 bag/day peak season), as most of last season’s crop has been sold.
- Domestic Demand: Strong, especially ahead of the festival season and from bulk buyers in the spice and food processing sectors.
- Export Demand: Still moderate, but new inquiries from Southeast Asia and the Middle East could boost future shipments; traders watch for global price signals.
- Market Talk: Firm sentiment persists with expectations of further gains if arrivals remain low ahead of the next harvest cycle.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
- Production Regions: Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka.
- Weather: Mostly favorable, stable conditions support quality, but low inflow tightens the market further.
- Stock Position: Inventories with traders/stockists; availability at mandis is low.
- Prices: Trending higher; short-term market support from both consumption and limited supply.
- Comparative Insight: Previous reports also highlighted price firmness due to tight arrivals; current market is seeing even firmer price action as arrivals have sunk to yearly lows.
🌦️ Weather & Regional Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka: Recent weather reports show continued favorable conditions, with stable temperatures and adequate but not excessive rainfall. Crop quality is secure for stored stocks, and no major pest or disease outbreaks reported. The weather is unlikely to materially boost short-term arrivals, so pressure on stocks remains.
- Impact: Weather stability is positive for quality retention but does not alleviate tight supply, keeping upward price risk intact for the weeks ahead.
🌐 Global Production & Trade
- India: World’s largest chilli producer and exporter; reduced arrivals in recent months amplify market tightness.
- Other Key Producers: China, Mexico, and Pakistan. Global supplies are stable but local bases in India drive short-term price discovery.
- Imports/Exports: Global trade for red chilli has slowed compared to last quarter; Indian exports expected to pick up as foreign buyers prepare for festive needs.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Guntur:
- Day 1: $17.60 per 100 kg
- Day 2: $18.20 per 100 kg
- Day 3: $18.50 per 100 kg
- Warangal:
- Day 1: $20.10 per 100 kg
- Day 2: $20.60 per 100 kg
- Day 3: $21.00 per 100 kg
- Khammam:
- Day 1: $11.80 per 100 kg
- Day 2: $12.20 per 100 kg
- Day 3: $12.50 per 100 kg
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Favorable setup for further price appreciation, especially if arrivals remain restricted.
- Short-term buyers may consider incremental purchases to hedge against expected additional price gains of $6.00–$12.00 per 100 kg.
- Exporters should monitor festival season demand from Southeast Asia and the Middle East for potential new deals.
- Stockists advised to retain current holdings as near-term price momentum is positive.
- Monitor global price signals and potential currency movements for export competitiveness.
